Hero-itis

At least the Celtics tried last night. I just wish the focus would have been, too. After looking dominant for the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Boston Celtics suffered a set back and lost their rhythm on a night when the Orlando Magic decided to show up and play. This loss wasn't totally disheartening and dreadful to watch (like game 3 of the Cleveland Series, for example), but it didn't lack in frustration, head scratchers or angry outbursts directed at my TV. A loss is never a good thing, and watching game 4 gave me PTSD flashbacks of this regular season where Orlando looked like world-beaters and the Celtics looked completely disjointed.

The Celtics looked like they all wanted to be the hero last night, and as a result the wheels completely fell off their offensive game. The Celtics couldn't or didn't want to move the ball last night, and they let the Orlando defense clamp down and force Boston into uncomfortable situations. The Celtics not named Ray Allen could not buy a basket from downtown (Orlando was not great at shooting the 3, but the Celtics were AWFUL) yet still chucked up enough threes to build a brick house (Ray Allen: 5-7 on 3-pointers in game 4, other Celtics: 0-11. Yikes). The Celtics weren't listless during game 4 and actually did a remarkable job of coming back to force OT considering how bad they were, but they simply couldn't get anything done on offense and couldn't stop a fired up Magic team.

Speaking of the Magic, this is probably a situation where I need to give credit where it is due. Orlando played hard for an entire game for the first time this series and executed a brilliant game plan on both ends of the floor. They escaped with a gritty victory and now have some momentum heading into a game 5 in Orlando that may well be the last at Amway Arena. The Magic were more aggressive and decisive in game 4, which put the Celtics on their heels and created more easy scoring opportunities that had been scarce until now.

Jameer Nelson played better than Rajon Rondo for the first time this series and was an effective playmaker throughout. Nelson also sealed the game for the Magic in overtime by hitting consecutive 3-pointers, both of which registered a collective 9.0 on the ridiculous scale. The first shot was a rushed three-pointer from the left wing that was heavily contested and banked in, breaking the 86-86 tie that had ended regulation. After a Celtic miss, Nelson then dribbled down the right side and was blanketed by the Celtics yet still chose to launch another 3 from 27 feet away from the hoop. Swish. Nelson took the game from a dead tie to a 6-point Magic lead in less than 45 seconds and the Celtics never regained the lead. I didn't care much for the results of those two possessions last night, but I will absolutely live with those looks and the consequences for the Celtics.

Jameer Nelson may have made the lucky shots to ice the victory for Orlando last night, but their real hero was Dwight Howard, who made his best and most dominant contribution to this series on both ends of the floor. Howard finished with 32/16 and 4 blocks on an efficient 13-19 from the floor but a miserable 6-14 from the free-throw line. The stat line for Howard is impressive enough, but it doesn't begin to tell the whole story of how he affected last night's game (fortunately for you guys, I am here to fill in the details). Dwight Howard flat out controlled the paint on both ends of the floor last night largely because of his work on the glass (and also because the refs let him camp out for five seconds at a time in the key). The Celtics couldn't handle Howard on the glass (he had 5 offensive rebounds) and paid dearly for it. Instead of making him work out of the post for his shots, the Celtics let Howard grab misses in position to dunk or lay the ball in and then failed several times to wrap him up and send him to the line after an offensive rebound.

Orlando came out and played like they had nothing to lose (maybe because they didn't?) and the Celtics came out and played like they all wanted to put the Magic to sleep by themselves. That kind of basketball isn't what got the Celtics to this point, and if they continue to do this they may be in real trouble. I certainly got ahead of myself yesterday and was perhaps put in my place by the turnout of the game, but that doesn't mean I am prepared to give in to the front-running hysterics and declare that this ship is going down. No team in NBA history has ever come back form a 3-0 deficit, and it will not be happening this year. The Celtics will be more focused in game 5 and the Magic still haven't shown that they have what it takes to play consistently against this Celtic team. It's very hard to beat anyone four times in a row in this league, so don't panic and tune in for game five on Wednesday!

How Valuable is a Year in College Anyhow?

I've been trying unsuccessfully to write a column about Kendrick Perkins for several days now, but with the news this morning of Congressman Steve Cohen's call to the NBA to lift its age restrictions on incoming players, I feel compelled to throw my two cents in.  In case you didn't know, the NBA placed an age restriction on players entering the NBA draft in 2005, forcing young basketball players to be one year removed from high school before giving them eligibility for the NBA Draft.  I won't bother recounting the Association's excuses or arguments for this limit because frankly, they're all totally bogus.  I'm sorry, I just don't see how one mandatory year of college or some other equivalent is supposed to create better educated, more mature players for the league.

What I do see in this age limit is the league exploiting young men because they are lazy and incompetent.  First of all, this age limit forces players to donate a year of their lives to playing for the NCAA.  Though they usually receive free tuition from the schools that recruit them and a healthy amount of exposure in the process, prospects are sacrificing a year of pro salary and risking serious injury every time they take the floor for their schools.  The schools, the NCAA and CBS all make a killing off of these young men and give them minimal compensation in return.  It isn't quite slavery (after all they DO receive something in exchange for their services), but in many ways this system is very close to indentured servitude.  The schools presumably feed, clothe and "educate" the young men in exchange for their hard work at what appears to me as an appallingly unfair rate.  

Secondly, the NBA's current age limit creates a huge double standard for incoming talent by forcing American teenagers to wait a year before entering the draft while talented youngsters from Europe and elsewhere are allowed into the draft regardless of their age.  For example, Spain's Ricky Rubio will be one of the top prospects in this year's draft (likely going second or third overall) despite the fact that he doesn't turn 19 until the end of October 2009.  By contrast, point guard sensation Brandon Jennings was not allowed to enter into the 2008 Draft directly out of high school (choosing instead to play professionally in Europe instead of going to college) because of this rule even though his age situation is almost exactly the same as Rubio's (Jennings was born in September of 1989, Rubio was born in October of 1990).  Though Jennings got paid for his year in Europe, his stock has fallen from being a potential top three pick last year to being a late lottery pick with some question marks this year.  This will end up costing him millions of dollars immediately and perhaps throughout his entire career in the NBA, while Rubio will essentially be following the path Jennings would have and will be handsomely rewarded for it by the NBA.  

So why does Ricky Rubio get to play before he's 19 and many young stars-to-be like Brandon Jennings have to wait?  Aside form the exploitation and the money tied up in college ball and the interests of the NCAA etc. etc., the dirty truth is that most NBA scouts and GMs are so horrible and inept at judging basketball prospects that they need to send all of these boys to college to have even a slight chance of accurately evaluating them.  The competition that these young men play against in high school is so uneven and unpredictable that it can make it harder to get an accurate picture of their abilities as a player, whereas in the NCAA, the competition is easier to judge and generally holds to a certain standard (games are also more often televised, which cuts down on the need to send scouts out to random gyms across the country).  By pitting these prospects against tougher, more standardized competition, it becomes much easier for scouts and GMs to make informed decisions about a player's strengths, weaknesses and potential.  

Why else would there be an age limit if not for this benefit?  I can't honestly believe that Stern thinks these kids are actually getting any kind of real education in one year at college which has become simply an extended pro tryout, nor do I believe that he sees this program as a way to make players more mature (anyone heard of Michael Beasley?).  No, Stern and the owners and executives did this to make their jobs easier.  Because NBA teams were having trouble telling the difference between Josh Smith and Gerald Green, they came up with a stupid rule (in classic NBA fashion) that solves the problem on their end without addressing the real issues at hand.  Heaven forbid that the scouts and GMs across the NBA develop better methods for evaluating high schoolers or put more time and energy into dissecting the potential flaws of a player from high school, no that simply wouldn't do.  Instead, the league chooses to punish the players by robbing them of salary to solve the problem.  

But other sports have age limits, so why not basketball?  Sure, football has an age limit because if they let 18 year-olds onto an NFL field with Julius Peppers or Ray Lewis they'd get killed, plain and simple.  An age limit makes sense there, but not in the NBA where players as young as 18 and 19 can not only hold their own against veterans but dominate a game.  Even in sports with considerably more contact than basketball, 18 year-olds fresh out of high school are allowed to compete at the highest level as long as they're ready to do so (does the name Sydney Crosby ring a bell?).  Baseball takes players straight out of high school, and although most spend years in the minor leagues developing their skills, those who are ready to play immediately are not prevented from doing so.  The only sane reason to put an age limit on professional sports is to protect the players from the level of competition they face.  The NBA says this is the reason for their ban on high schoolers, but really they're doing it to cover their own asses.

To me, it's as plain as day that the NBA panicked and instated this ludicrous rule because they were either too stupid or too unwilling to take the bull by the horns and work hard on evaluating these high school players.  Instead of using discretion when it came to evaluating high school players, NBA GMs and scouts went crazy and thought that every high school phenom would be the next KG or Kobe.  Discretion, judgement and common sense went out the window and then players like Sebastian Telfair, Gerald Green, Eddy Curry, Kwame Brown and Darius Miles were taken way too soon and suddenly all hell breaks loose.  I'm not about to say that any of these guys belonged in the NBA right out of high school, but what I will say to the death is that it isn't their fault that NBA teams were too stupid or too blind to see their flaws.  The onus for giving contracts to players has to fall on the teams and the executives who are paid handsomely to do just that, shifting the burden onto the players is simply outrageous.  

And while we're at it, I don't buy for one minute the argument that sending players to college for ONE YEAR makes them more mature human beings or more productive members of society, the evidence simply doesn't support that.  For every head case from high school that could have used a year or two of college (think of the names from the previous paragraph as a good starting point), there are also a slew of NBA players who were very successful in their transition from high school to the NBA.  Want names?  How about LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bynum, Travis Outlaw, Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Al Harrington, Josh Smith, Jermaine O'Neal, Amare Stoudemire and Moses Malone (all off the top of my head) just to name a few.  And beyond that, I could probably come up with a list of players who went to college and still turned out to be busts or head cases or worse (think Ron Artest, J.R. Rider, Zach Randolph, Dennis Rodman etc.).  College does not equal maturity, nor does it always equal an education.  There is no proof that I'm aware of that shows that college players are better humans than high schoolers or that college players do better in the pros than high schoolers do.

I'm not advocating that every prospective pro player declare for the draft right out of high school, because most of them simply aren't ready for the NBA.  Most players could use at least two seasons of college to learn and refine their game before making the difficult leap to the pros, but I don't see that as a good reason to bar ALL high school athletes from making the jump.  Some basketball players are physically and mentally ready for the NBA straight out of high school, and forcing them to sacrifice millions of dollars is a crime.  Sometimes I can't help but wonder if Stern and the NBA did any research at all before making this inane decision, but then I remember that this is the NBA and that stuff like this happens in all arenas of the pro game all the time.  A difficult solution exists (scout better, draft high schoolers with caution) but the league opts for the solution that's easiest for them but skirts the real issue.

So how valuable is a year of college for these basketball players?  I think it has some value but not nearly as much as a contract in the NBA does.  These young men are being unjustly forced to sacrifice their bodies for a system that makes millions off of them and provides them with very little in return.  Though the age limit was implemented to supposedly help players make the tough journey to the NBA and provide them with greater opportunities for success, in truth it does little more than shield the suits running the teams.  If this doesn't seem crazy or wrong to anyone else, let me know and I will check myself into a hospital.  Until then, I'm going to watch game one of the Finals, which will feature two high school superstars in Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard, and drink until my brain can't fathom this egregious and ridiculous hypocrisy.  

Running Commentary

Before we get to the looming game seven tomorrow, I am compelled to point out that although Dwight Howard led the Magic to a victory in game six (he got 16 shots), his post play and touches were not what carried the day for Orlando.  If I had to point to one reason, it would probably be the "10" under offensive rebounds in Howard's stat line from game six.  Put simply, Dwight dominated the boards on both ends and generated the vast majority of his offense from second shot opportunities off of missed shots from his fellow Magicians.  It's what he does best, and when he dedicates himself to it the Magic are very tough to beat.  To the man's credit he admitted a mistake and focused his game in the right areas and gave an inspired effort for more than 40 minutes.  Add 19 Celtic turnovers to the mix and a seriously inspired defensive effort that committed to taking the ball away from Paul Pierce nearly every time he touched it, and you get a game seven tomorrow in Boston.  

This is a post under construction, and I'll try to add some more nuggets of pseudo-wisdom throughout the day at the Boathouse tomorrow.  If you can, watch the game.  Game sevens in the NBA are poetry in motion and the height of the sport.

By All Means, Heed Mr. Howard

Dwight Howard is demanding the ball more after a frustrating loss for the Orlando Magic in game five of their series against the Celtics, and I couldn't be happier.  Not only are Howard's comments creating panic and tension for Orlando fans and the Magic as an organization, but his demands are playing right into the Celtics' hands.  While everyone else around the country is debating whether or not the coaches or the players are more to blame for ignoring Howard down the stretch on Tuesday, only a selected few (John Hollinger, Bob Ryan, Basketbawful's Matt McHale and myself) have hit the nail on the head and highlighted the fact that despite Howard's broad shoulders occupying the middle of the floor, most of Orlando's offensive success this year has come from shooting three-pointers, not from isolating Dwight Howard in the low post and allowing him to make a play.

Sure, Dwight Howard is a beast down low and ranks as one of the best centers in the game, but his dominance comes from his physicality, athleticism and rebounding ability, not because of his ability to score in the post.  In basketball, there's a difference between scoring close to the basket and scoring out of the post.  Though both events usually occur in the same general area on the floor, they are not the same.  To score in the low post requires strength, athleticism and physicality to be sure, however it also requires several things that Dwight Howard sorely lacks: soft hands, good footwork and a light touch with both hands around the rim.  

Soft hands are necessary not just for converting baby hooks, floaters, turn around jumpers and bank shots, but for dribbling the basketball in traffic, catching an entry pass and passing out of a double team as well.  Similarly, good footwork is an absolute must for successful low post offense, as the offensive player must efficiently and effectively use their feet to win a position battle and get to their spots on the floor from more than just a few feet away.  Lastly, a light shooting touch with both hands is necessary for elite post play, as the league's best defenders can force an opponent to go to their off hand in the post as an effective means for getting a stop.

Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, Pau Gasol and Al Jefferson can do all of these things, Dwight Howard cannot.  First of all, nothing about Dwight Howard can be described as "soft," especially not his shooting touch (watch him try and make a bank shot from more than three feet and you'll see what I mean).  In the same vein, Howard has no left hand, which makes it too easy for the Celtic big men to guard him, since they know in advance which way he's going when he shoots.  Lastly and perhaps most importantly, his footwork is atrocious and as of yet unpolished, making it almost impossible for him to get to his spots on the floor (i.e. the rim) against a disciplined and physical defense.  It's not just that Howard lacks the necessary fundamentals to perform all of the spins, fakes and other scoring moves that post wizards like Kevin McHale routinely pulled out to school defenders, he cannot use his steps efficiently and effectively to force defenders out of position and get him to his spots as fast as possible.

For most of the NBA season (and for his entire life prior to his NBA career), Howard can simply outmuscle his defender and get to the front of the rim for a quick dunk on an entry pass.  Against two very tough and very strong defenders in Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis, this is not so easy for Howard to do.  When he is consistently catching the ball outside of the paint or more than five feet from the rim (as has been happening all series long), Howard becomes ineffective on offense because of these holes in his game.  Against lesser opponents who lack the same caliber of personnel to match Howard's strengths, we don't notice and are content to ooh and ahh every time he emphatically slams the ball home on some poor sap's head, but against an elite opponent like the Celtics, his scoring average dips by 25% and he lights the match that will eventually burn the house down by not realizing what he actually needs to do to help his team win. 

What is that, by the way?  Aside from instantly learning flawless fundamental footwork and mastering his left hand in one or two nights, Howard could shut his freaking mouth and do what he does best: defend, rebound and score off of second chance opportunities.  In the games that Orlando has won in this series, Howard has been active on defense and grabbed a ton of rebounds (something that didn't happen in game five, where the Celtics got every loose ball and created key second shots that ultimately won the game).  In the Orlando wins in this series, he's averaging ten shots a game, which is exactly how many he got in game five.  In fact, as John Hollinger astutely pointed out the other day, the Magic play nearly as well or better when Howard gets ten shots or fewer than they do when he shoots a lot more.  Hmmmmm, maybe instead of blaming his coach Dwight should look at a stat sheet and realize that his touches per game have almost no correlation to the Magic's winning percentage.

On second thought, I hope he doesn't do that, because then Howard might realize that Orlando's true key to success lies not with him but with Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu behind the three-point line.  As those two players go, so go the Magic.  If they are hitting shots, then Howard suddenly finds himself open a lot more for those easy dunks that he lives on.  If they are being well defended or don't have the ball as often because some giant oaf in the middle is selfishly demanding the ball, then you get results like Tuesday's soul crushing loss.  Perhaps once Dwight learns a few post moves and proves to be a dominant scorer on the block, I'll take what he has to say seriously.  Until then, he's just a better version of Tyson Chandler who dunks with a superman cape.  

Aligning the Stars

Admittedly I'm somewhat distracted right now by the breaking news that Manny Ramirez has tested positive for a banned substance and will be suspended for 50 games starting today.  He tested positive for a female fertility drug, which is apparently used as a mechanism to restart the body's natural testosterone production after the user has finished a steroid cycle.  So much for my vote that he's the greatest right-handed hitter to ever play the game (welcome back, Mr. Aaron!).  Even in the steroid era where nobody can be presumed innocent after so many revelations in recent years, this shocked me.  Manny had no need for steroids, for his gifts of brilliant vision, balance, discipline, reflexes and the sweetest swing I've ever seen made him the great hitter he is, yet the implications from this result is practically a smoking gun.  We should have known better by now, but somehow this is still a devastating shock to the system.  So it goes.  

As for basketball news, the Celtics are looking good once again after pounding the Magic into submission last night to even the series and hearing the news today that Magic point guard Rafer "Skip 2 my Lou" Alston has been suspended for game three after slapping Eddie House upside the head during the second half of game two.  Though Alston hasn't had any luck stopping the Celtic guards or providing effective offense against them, his loss means that the already suspect Orlando point-guard corps is now thinner than Mikki Moore.  This loss would be significant against any NBA opponent, however against the Celtics it is huge because of the out-of-this-world play from Rajon Rondo.

Speaking of Rondo, he continued his downright nasty (and I mean that in the best possible way) play last night, notching another triple double with 15 points, 11 rebounds and 18 (!) assists.  The numbers are impressive (especially the assist total) enough, but they don't even capture the extent to which he shredded the Magic from start to finish.  As usual, Rondo was the catalyst and used his speed and energy to wreak havoc on a normally stout Orlando defense and created more scoring opportunities for the Celtics than his 18 assists indicate.  Simmons is right, he's a smaller, faster and nastier version of Isiah Thomas, and I'm totally loving every second of it.

Game three is tomorrow night in Orlando, and while I'd normally pick the home team to win an intense home game after getting humiliated at your opponents house in the last contest, but for a variety of reasons that I will in due time explain, I like the Celtics to win the next game.  The first reason is the absence of Alston and the stellar play of Rajon Rondo.  Anthony Johnson and Tyronn Lue have little hope of containing Rondo on defense, and neither have proven to be players capable of taking big minutes in big games.  Rondo will slash the Orlando guards to ribbons, and even with Dwight Howard defending the rim Rondo's dribble penetration will help the other Celtics find open shots.  The Magic have no answer for Rondo, and that's the end of the story.

Another factor working for the Celtics going into game three is the poor play of Paul Pierce in game two.  Pierce played only 16 minutes in game two because of foul trouble and finished with just three points for the game.  Because of the foul trouble, Pierce actually got an impromptu rest and should be fresh for the next contest.  Pierce is also the kind of player who is competitive and proud, meaning he isn't likely to have two bad games in a row.  With that in mind, I'm looking for him to exploit his advantages against the Magic and spark the Celtics on the road, much as they did against Chicago in game three of that series.  If he can stay out of foul trouble, Pierce should have plenty of opportunities to remind the Magic why he's called the Truth.

In this same vein, I expect Dwight Howard to play better than he did in game two (he got outplayed by Kendrick Perkins and finished with a pedestrian 12/12), but to me that won't necessarily translate into a win for the Magic.  As I've written about at length before, I believe that Dwight Howard's game is limited and that he can be defended more readily than anyone is willing to admit.  The Celtics have played him well all year long, and Glen Davis has personally gotten the better of him before.  He's incredibly talented to be sure, however his strengths don't really match up that well against a tough and disciplined defense like the Celtics.  

Dwight Howard can simply be pushed away from the rim and double teamed all day long, which if done properly can completely remove him from the game and really stagnate the normally fluid, high octane Orlando offense.  Howard struggles to be an offensive threat when he's more than five feet from the basket, and his poor footwork and passing skills can make him a liability on a night where he isn't allowed to live in the paint.  Because of this, the Celtics have an advantage over Orlando and should win this series, albeit in six or seven games (though who wants to?  As I'm writing this, LeBron and the Cavs are KILLING the Hawks again and James just hit a 40-footer to end the first half with a hand in his face and it wasn't luck.  He measured the shot, rose up for a normal jumper and followed through as the ball went through the net, simply sick.)

Spring Thawing

Consider this your courtesy wake up call: the home stretch of the NBA season has arrived!  With only three weeks to go before the beginning of the real NBA season, teams in the hunt for a playoff spot are either picking up the intensity level (see: Orlando, 9-2 in March.  More on them later) or wilting under the pressure (see Portland: losing at home to the 76ers and making me look like an ass),  all of which makes for exciting basketball and good reading.  Add to that a smothering portion of MVP debate and the serious beginnings of draft chatter and it makes life interesting and meaningful as a basketball fan.  

If you were a smart fan who isn't totally addicted to watching any and every NBA game that's on TV, you've slept through most of the season (much like I slept through most of my morning classes in college...) and are now just in time for all of the excitement and the games that actually matter*.  In the hours you'd normally spend facebooking, gambling or reading about grossly fattening food on your computer at work, you could catch up on all of the major story lines of the NBA season from D-Wade's rebirth to Tyson Chandler's foot-gate (patent pending).  If you do some digging and stick with me, you'll know everything about this season whether you want to or not.  Soon enough, you'll be passing for a loyal die hard fan and accusing some of your peers and coworkers of being bandwagon hugging phonies (you sly fox, you) and hitting your peak of interest right as the playoffs begin.  If this describes you, then may I suggest first that you watch tomorrow night's contest between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics, and second that you keep reading (you have to in order to find the funny joke attached to that asterisk from earlier).

No matter what kind of basketball fan you are, tomorrow night's game will be for you.  It's the final meeting between the Celtics, who come in ranked second in the East, and the third ranked Magic who trail Boston by only one game.  This game is also Orlando's last chance to even the season series between the two teams (they are currently down 2-1) and neutralize a potential playoff tiebreaker that could determine home court advantage between these two teams.  Oh yeah, and Orlando beat the Celtics 86-79 in Boston the last time these clubs met, which means this is a shot at revenge for the Celtics, who are finally getting healthier after a horrible month that saw at times seven different rotation players out of the lineup with injuries.  And I haven't even mentioned all of the talented players involved...  yet.

I imagine I'll have a fair bit to talk about after the game tomorrow, so for now I want to focus on one issue that will likely come into play during tomorrow's game.  For once, it doesn't have anything to do with Stephon Marbury (though I suppose he could be involved in a way) or any of the other Celtics for that matter, but instead with their largest opponent in tomorrow's game.  And no, I don't mean Marcin Gortat.  I am talking about Dwight Howard, Olympic Gold Medalist and Orlando's All-Star Center.  

If you've followed the NBA this year (those of you who are just catching up, take note), you know that Dwight Howard is having a beastly year in the territory of the all time greats with his 21 points/14 rebounds/3 blocks per game average this year and has received some nominations for Defensive Player of the Year from members of the national media.  Howard leads the NBA in blocks and seems to be able to get a hand on almost anything that's less than 18 feet from the floor, consistently providing jaw dropping highlights and dare I say super human feats of athleticism.  Hardly a game goes by where Dwight does not spring up from an entangled forest of bodies into a level of the stratosphere that even stealth bombers can't reach to swat a shot into the fifth row to a chorus of oohs and aahs and a dizzying array of flashbulbs.  The crowd roars, Howard roars and the player whose shot is now a temporary souvenir is humbled.  Somewhere, Kevin Harlan shouts so loud that Charles Barkley gets startled and drops his bear claw.  Howard truly is something to behold, and it shocks me to think about how dominant he could possibly be with another five years of experience and training, but Defensive Player of the Year?  I think not.

First of all, defense is more than blocking shots and grabbing rebounds (though doing those things well surely helps), and in that regard I can think of several other players in the NBA right now who are far more deserving of the award.  This however, is a whole new can of worms that I have just cracked open but will now discard and open later.  The truth is, I don't even need to go into that to sink Howard's chances at DPOY.  Instead, I'm going to dissect and dismantle his shot-blocking, which is the main reason he's considered for the award (only four paragraphs to get to the damn point today, someone give me a medal!).  

You see, not all shot blocks are created equal, and the lion's share of Dwight Howard's blocks are inherently less useful than others.  Before you accuse me of being some kind of Calvinist, give me a chance to explain myself.  Remember the superhuman display of athleticism I described involving Dwight Howard?  What's the result of that play?  The Magic are still on defense and their opponent gets to inbound the basketball from the sideline and run a set play.  The other team gets another chance to score, and they get to do it comfortably using sets they've practiced all year long.  Even if Howard blocks the shot with only a little time left on the clock, the other team still gets to try and run an inbounds play to get an open look immediately, which will give them a reasonably good shot more often than Orlando would like.  Is that supposed to be great defense?  It looks good, sure, but the net gain for his team off of such a play is minimal.

Now consider what happens if instead of swatting the shot off the court as hard as he could, Dwight Howard simply went up, accepted the ball with his hands and either tipped it to a teammate or to himself.  Though it isn't as sexy as spiking a basketball into oblivion and it's likely too subtle for an ESPN highlight, the result of that play is much greater than before.  By blocking shots and keeping them in play, Howard would greatly increase the chances that his team gains possession of the basketball.  This takes away a possession form your opponent while giving you an extra opportunity, which is pretty much the exact formula for playing successful basketball.  Also, blocking shots with the aim of gaining possession tends to lead to more easy basket opportunities via the fast break and more chances to catch your opponent at a defensive disadvantage after such a play.  

All of the guys who are considered elite shot blockers and defenders do this, from Josh Smith, Tim Duncan and Ben Wallace circa 2003 all the way to the G.O.A.T., Bill Russell.  For whatever reason, Dwight Howard doesn't do this, and therefore doesn't deserve to be in the conversation of elite defenders in this league.  If the goal of defense is to get the ball back without giving up points, Dwight Howard is a good but not great means to accomplish that end.  He prevents the other team from scoring once, but also tends to give them another shot at it.  Until that changes, I'm not convinced that Howard deserves it more than Kevin Garnett, Josh Smith, Shane Battier or even Dwyane Wade.  

And while I'll buy that unleashing a resounding swat into the third row has value as an intimidator and can alter the way the opposition attacks the defense, I think that any kind of block is psychologically damaging and will serve as a reminder about who controls the paint, especially if it turns into a fast break layup or dunk on the other end.  And sure, if you deflect the ball inbounds there's always a chance it goes right to an opponent who could magically be in position to score easily, but again, I'm not sold on that scenario yielding more points over the long run than allowing the other team to run an inbounds play for a shot over the long run.  This is probably a woefully incomplete discussion of the topic, but it's m two cents, anyhow.  Whatever, at least I know that Red Auerbach agrees with me.   

*Disclaimer: less than half of the remaining games actually matter.  

Better Days

I just checked and it turns out that I'm contractually obligated as a journalist to spend at least 500 words writing an "oh shit" column about Kevin Garnett's right knee and the Celtics' ugly (and I do mean ugly) loss to the Jazz last night in Utah.  My heart was in my throat last night and my mind was racing after Garnett came up lame in the second quarter and struggled to put any weight on his right knee, however after some sleep, hookah, beer and an afternoon sitting in the sun I'm not feeling nearly so heartbroken today as I did last night.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not sunny on the injury, but I'm not exactly going to declare the Celtics' season over because of it.

In case any of you didn't know, KG has flown back to Boston for an MRI, and at this point it seems as though the Celtics are wisely erring on the side of caution with their superstar forward.  Boston will miss him during the remaining games of the road trip, but this option is better than letting a warrior like Garnett (who'd play on a bleeding stump of his leg if you let him) tough it out and risk making a minor injury worse.  This injury seems somewhat similar to Garnett's abdominal strain from last year, with one significant wrinkle that could cause problems down the road for the Celtics (more on that a bit later).

First of all, the Celtics have shown that they can win without Garnett in the lineup.  They proved this last year around this time, and I expect them to be able to do so again this year.  In fact, losing Garnett for a week or two could end up being beneficial for the Celtics in the long run.  Without the Big Ticket in the lineup, both Glen Davis and leon Powe are going to get more touches and more minutes in the rotation, providing the team an opportunity to get more out of two role players who will need to play big in the playoffs.  Giving Davis and Powe more time with the starters now is just a warm up for May and (hopefully) June.  This is an opportunity for both players to grow and develop, hopefully they can take advantage of it.

The important thing to remember is that no one player has to shoulder the load that KG normally carries, and that even without their emotional leader the Celtics have a good core of veteran players that have proven to be tough enough to carry a team by themselves.  If Kendrick Perkins can step up a bit with the other front court reserves, the Celtics should still be able to win games, even against some of the Association's tougher defenses.  The early prognosis is that Garnett may be ready to play against the Pacers at home once the road trip is over, so with a little bit of luck the Celtics should be back to business as usual in a week.

But let's not count our chickens before they hatch, people.  When Garnett missed time last year, the Celtics were way ahead in the standings and had a very small chance of losing the best record in the league and home court advantage throughout the playoffs (which, as it turns out, was HUGE with a capital HUGE).  That was then, this is now.  Today, the Celtics trail the Lakers for the best overall record and aren't even first in the East (the Cavs are two one-thousandths of a point ahead of Boston right now), trailing Cleveland by a small margin.  The Celtics were having their fair share of issues just keeping pace with the NBA's best before Garnett's injury, and now they have to make up ground without their best player (definitely a different discussion for a different time, but I stand by this).  

The implications of this race for the best record both in the Conference and in the NBA are twofold.  First, having home court advantage is a big boost, especially for an emotional team that relies heavily on falling jump shots to get wins (I'm no stat geek, but I believe that a home crowd can focus players and help make shots fall).  Cleveland took the Celtics to the last possession of the seventh game last year, and given their off-season improvements, the Celtics will need every edge they can get against LeBron James and the Cavaliers.  Although the Celtics were able to win road games in Detroit and Los Angeles last year on their championship run (including the huge comeback against LA in game 4 of the Finals), having game sevens in Boston will be vital for the Celtics' success this year in the playoffs.

Secondly, and most importantly, having the best record matters because favorable playoff match-ups on the road to the NBA FInals.  If the Celtics can't pass Cleveland for the best record in the East, then Boston is looking at #3 Orlando in the second round of the playoffs, while Cleveland would get the winner of the Hawks/Heat series.  Although I firmly believe that Dwight Howard is extremely overrated and that the Celtics can beat Orlando in a seven game series, they aren't a team that I want to play in the second round.  With Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and now Rafer Alston on the perimeter, the Magic are a dangerous team that's as talented as any in the NBA.  Not having to play them while simultaneously forcing Cleveland to take them on would be huge for Boston's hopes of repeating as champions.  

In other news, Joe Smith wants to play for the Celtics, which would be just what the doctor ordered for the Celtics' bench, the Blazers failed to make a move for Gerald Wallace (which has me so steamed that I may start a Blazers blog too just to write 3,000 words about why the Blazers should have pulled the trigger), Tyson Chandler is a Hornet again, and Amar'e Stoudemire's eyes are falling out.  Also, Ray Utech is unreliable and despite his firm assertion to the contrary, should always choose will-call for his Blazer tickets from now on.  The last two thirds of that Blazers/Grizzlies game was awesome, though.

Defending and Defeating Dwight Howard

Admittedly this post is a few days late, but I had to quell my own internal debate about how much weight I was willing to put into the Celtics' last victory against the Orlando Magic in Florida last Thursday.  I don't like the idea of regular season games holding any weight as "statement games," but after some careful consideration, I've decided that last Thursday's victory over the Magic contained a few tell tale signs that could come in handy a few months from now in the playoffs.  

While it certainly was nice to see the Celtics come away with another impressive victory over an elite team, I think that the contest actually said more about the Magic than it did about Boston.  The Celtics pretty much performed the way they should have and won the way they always do, with stifling defense, teamwork and effort.  In fact, the only thing that made this particular win noteworthy was the fact that the Celtics were going through a rough patch and couldn't handle business in their usual way, so seeing them perform as they should became the exception rather than the rule.

The Magic, on the other hand, were riding a seven game win streak that saw them set offensive records against Sacramento and sweep their season series against both the Spurs and Lakers.  During this time, the Magic had leapfrogged the Celtics in the Eastern Conference standings, and were looking like they might just rip like a buzz saw through the rest of the NBA and make the Finals this year.  Heck, people were starting to make the Dwight Howard/Shaq comparisons and prognosticate about a second round series between the Celtics and Cavaliers (assuming that the Magic would finish ahead of either one or both of those teams).  

And then the Celtics proceeded to dismantle the Magic, despite surrendering eight offensive rebounds in the first quarter.  Most impressive was the way in which the Celtics handled Dwight Howard, holding him to a pedestrian 11 points, 11 rebounds and only three blocks before fouling him out with five minutes to go.  In fact, the Celtics pretty much shut Howard down after the first quarter behind some inspired defense from Kendrick Perkins and Glen "Big Baby" Davis.  No, that's not a misprint, Dwight "the-best-center-in-the-game" Howard was absolutely shut down by Glen freaking Davis.  Would you like to know how?  (That's a rhetorical question, by the way.  I'm going to tell you whether you want to hear it or not).

The Celtics employed an absolutely brilliant strategy to stop Howard, and to be honest, it was so complicated I doubt that most of you will be able to follow it, but here it goes anyways.  The Celtics kept Howard out of the paint and away from the basket, and magically, he couldn't score (Ta-Da!).  Gee, that was complicated, almost as deep as trapping Kobe in a late game situation in order to throw the Lakers off their game and make somebody else beat you when all the chips are down (Sarcasm alert, sarcasm alert!).  You know, it's that kind of intricate defensive game-planning that gives Tom Thibodeau the image of a coaching genius.  I mean, not just anyone can do this to Dwight Howard, right?

Wrong.  In fact, the Charlotte Bobcats did an even better job on Howard earlier this year than the Celtics did on Thursday night, holding the big man to 4 points and 7 rebounds in just 26 minutes (though the Bobcats did lose that game by 5).  And wouldn't you know it, they used the same strategy that the Celtics did to contain Howard, making it a priority to keep Howard more than five feet away from the rim for most of the game.  And if the Bobcats can do that to Dwight Howard, I'd reckon that the Celtics could probably do the same thing more than once.  Oh wait, they already have (check the splits vs. Boston this year, you may have to scroll down a little bit).

I mean, the logic is so simple even Vin Diesel could understand it.  If you have a player who is only effective (albeit extremely effective) near the basket, then keep him away from it and you should have success in defending him.  You see, as good and as dominant as Dwight Howard is, he has only one reliable move on offense, which is the slam dunk.  Almost half of Howard's baskets this year have been dunks, and after watching him several times this year, I can honestly say that he really doesn't have another reliable move in his arsenal.  

Howard's jump-hook looks only slightly better than Greg Oden's at this point, and his footwork isn't even that much better.  Although Dwight did hit two early jump hooks against the Celtics (one with each hand), after that he returned to form and missed pretty much everything that wasn't at point blank range.  Howard was consistently getting the ball outside of the paint, and because of his poor footwork (and Big Baby's giant ass), he wasn't able to get to the rim and find the same high percentage looks he normally gets.  

And even worse than getting shredded by Big Baby on the other end (Davis went off for 16 points on 6-of-8 shooting and 4 rebounds in 21 minutes), was the fact that the Celtics didn't even have to double Howard down low.  Even though Baby was giving up more than 6" of height to Howard, he was able to effectively defend Howard 1-on-1 for most of the evening.  With such a height advantage for Howard, the Celtics were effectively conceding any kind of over-the-top move Howard wanted all night long, but because Howard has no other reliable moves, this mismatch didn't matter a lick and the other Celtics were able to concentrate on defending Orlando's other dangerous weapons.

Now, I haven't gotten this officially confirmed by the Association yet, but I'm proposing that if you get shut down by Glen Davis, then you don't deserve to be in the MVP discussion that season.  Actually, even if it hadn't been Davis who had shut Howard down, I'd still say that Howard doesn't deserve any MVP nods or votes for defensive player of the year, for that matter.  I'd put him up there in the discussion for most overhyped player of the year (though I fear he might lose that one too to Kobe Bryant), but that's about it (he's a guy with one move who can't pass, hit free-throws or do anything but block a shot into the third row and give is opponents another chance to run a set play.  And he got shut down by Glen Davis!!!!!!!!  End of discussion).

While I'm not about to go way out there and say after Thursday's win that the Celtics will repeat as champions and that they're the greatest thing since sliced bread, I will say that as good as Orlando is, I don't fear them that much and I don't think that the Celtics should either.  Also, I fear Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis far more than I fear Howard at this point.  A few years from now if Dwight can actually refine his game (like Amare Stoudemire did in Phoenix) and become a dynamic player who plays with consistent intensity on both ends of the floor, things will change for sure.  But until then, I'm only prepared to acknowledge one legitimate obstacle in the Celtics' path towards a repeat championship, and he wears #23 and plays in Cleveland.