Hero-itis

At least the Celtics tried last night. I just wish the focus would have been, too. After looking dominant for the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Boston Celtics suffered a set back and lost their rhythm on a night when the Orlando Magic decided to show up and play. This loss wasn't totally disheartening and dreadful to watch (like game 3 of the Cleveland Series, for example), but it didn't lack in frustration, head scratchers or angry outbursts directed at my TV. A loss is never a good thing, and watching game 4 gave me PTSD flashbacks of this regular season where Orlando looked like world-beaters and the Celtics looked completely disjointed.

The Celtics looked like they all wanted to be the hero last night, and as a result the wheels completely fell off their offensive game. The Celtics couldn't or didn't want to move the ball last night, and they let the Orlando defense clamp down and force Boston into uncomfortable situations. The Celtics not named Ray Allen could not buy a basket from downtown (Orlando was not great at shooting the 3, but the Celtics were AWFUL) yet still chucked up enough threes to build a brick house (Ray Allen: 5-7 on 3-pointers in game 4, other Celtics: 0-11. Yikes). The Celtics weren't listless during game 4 and actually did a remarkable job of coming back to force OT considering how bad they were, but they simply couldn't get anything done on offense and couldn't stop a fired up Magic team.

Speaking of the Magic, this is probably a situation where I need to give credit where it is due. Orlando played hard for an entire game for the first time this series and executed a brilliant game plan on both ends of the floor. They escaped with a gritty victory and now have some momentum heading into a game 5 in Orlando that may well be the last at Amway Arena. The Magic were more aggressive and decisive in game 4, which put the Celtics on their heels and created more easy scoring opportunities that had been scarce until now.

Jameer Nelson played better than Rajon Rondo for the first time this series and was an effective playmaker throughout. Nelson also sealed the game for the Magic in overtime by hitting consecutive 3-pointers, both of which registered a collective 9.0 on the ridiculous scale. The first shot was a rushed three-pointer from the left wing that was heavily contested and banked in, breaking the 86-86 tie that had ended regulation. After a Celtic miss, Nelson then dribbled down the right side and was blanketed by the Celtics yet still chose to launch another 3 from 27 feet away from the hoop. Swish. Nelson took the game from a dead tie to a 6-point Magic lead in less than 45 seconds and the Celtics never regained the lead. I didn't care much for the results of those two possessions last night, but I will absolutely live with those looks and the consequences for the Celtics.

Jameer Nelson may have made the lucky shots to ice the victory for Orlando last night, but their real hero was Dwight Howard, who made his best and most dominant contribution to this series on both ends of the floor. Howard finished with 32/16 and 4 blocks on an efficient 13-19 from the floor but a miserable 6-14 from the free-throw line. The stat line for Howard is impressive enough, but it doesn't begin to tell the whole story of how he affected last night's game (fortunately for you guys, I am here to fill in the details). Dwight Howard flat out controlled the paint on both ends of the floor last night largely because of his work on the glass (and also because the refs let him camp out for five seconds at a time in the key). The Celtics couldn't handle Howard on the glass (he had 5 offensive rebounds) and paid dearly for it. Instead of making him work out of the post for his shots, the Celtics let Howard grab misses in position to dunk or lay the ball in and then failed several times to wrap him up and send him to the line after an offensive rebound.

Orlando came out and played like they had nothing to lose (maybe because they didn't?) and the Celtics came out and played like they all wanted to put the Magic to sleep by themselves. That kind of basketball isn't what got the Celtics to this point, and if they continue to do this they may be in real trouble. I certainly got ahead of myself yesterday and was perhaps put in my place by the turnout of the game, but that doesn't mean I am prepared to give in to the front-running hysterics and declare that this ship is going down. No team in NBA history has ever come back form a 3-0 deficit, and it will not be happening this year. The Celtics will be more focused in game 5 and the Magic still haven't shown that they have what it takes to play consistently against this Celtic team. It's very hard to beat anyone four times in a row in this league, so don't panic and tune in for game five on Wednesday!

Goodnight, Dwight

For those of you who may not know me or my philosophy on basketball all that well, a major component is my distaste for front running players and writers alike (mostly the writers). It seems to me that everyone gets so caught up in the hype and the swings from game to game that a lot of the thoughtful analysis and much of the beauty of the game of basketball gets lost in the shuffle. Even good, insightful writers fall victim to this trap, in no small part because one's ability to make bold predictions and then spend 1,000 words saying "I told you so" is apparently how we evaluate and judge sports writers and analysts today. Unfortunately, that brand of analysis is what a lot of fans like to read about and want to hear, but I can't help the feeling that it cheapens our knowledge of the game and is hurting the narrative that we use to discuss basketball.

Whenever I think about basketball or write about the game, I try to make a conscious effort to avoid that pitfall (I am not nearly as successful as I would like to be). Anyone who knows me will tell you that I take plenty of delight in being right when others are wrong, and I like to make sure that everybody knows just how right I was. I can play that game, but it makes me feel empty and I don't think that my skills as a writer or my knowledge of the game improved as a result of that indulgence. I am constantly looking for the even keeled perspective on the game, the series or whatever, and as a result I cannot be so authoritative in my "I told you so" moments and I tend to temper all my observations and subdue the strong desire to fall back into the mode of making wild predictions and statements based on short term results or small sample sizes.

As such, my last post contained more questions than answers as the Celtics headed into game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Orlando Magic and despite their recent play I still wondered whether or not the Celtics could sustain their focus without a lapse that would give Orlando hope for the series. After Saturday's performance, it is safe to say that the Celtics answered my questions authoritatively. The Celtics did not lose focus, they did not let up the same way they did against Cleveland, and now my only question about the 2010 Boston Celtics is "what have you done with the stiffs that were wearing your uniforms for most of the regular season?"

Game 3 against Orlando was a convincing victory to say the least (even the final score of 94-71 belies just how badly Boston dominated Orlando), and what impressed me the most about this virtuoso performance was that the Celtics put forth their most consistent effort yet and set out to crush the will of the Orlando Magic. In a situation where the Celtics could have easily lapsed, they came out firing on all cylinders and determined to control the game from start to finish. Although Boston has dominated Orlando for the vast majority of this series, in both games one and two the Magic were able to capitalize on minor mental lapses from the Celtics and scrap, claw and fight their way back into the contest. There was no such let up in game 3, and by the end you could see that the Orlando players were beaten and broken and ready for summer vacation. Tonight, I fully expect the Celtics to send them packing.

It must say something about the inconsistency of this Celtics team that I still have some reservations about their focus and drive with such a commanding lead in this series, but at this point I am very confident that the Celtics will put Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic to sleep for good tonight and head back to the NBA Finals to face the Western Conference Champion. Boston is too talented, too balanced, too focused and too determined to be deterred, while the Magic appear to have checked out of this series and their season last week.

I'm still not totally sure how much comes from the Celtics' otherworldly play and how much Orlando is to blame for their own predicament, but that hardly matters at this point. What is important is that the Celtics have an opportunity to get back to the NBA Finals as a healthy unit that is firing on all cylinders at just the right time of year. I am stuck here at work until 6 PM PST, but will hopefully catch the majority of the game and be able to provide timely insight and analysis during and after game 4. The Celtics are right there and should dominate again, look out!

Keep Your Foot on the Gas

Well, the Celtics sure haven't disappointed thus far, but the big question going forward is "can the Celtics keep up the focus and intensity, or will they crap the bed?" Based on the regular season, you'd have to expect the latter, but given the Celtics' current hot streak I just don't know what to expect. My philosophy is to stay even keeled and not to overreact to the game-to-game swings that send so many media members off the deep end and generally drag down the quality of analysis and commentary to the most base level knee-jerk reactions and hyperbole imaginable. Let's see if I can avoid that pitfall for the next 700 words...

Although the Celtics collapsed in epic fashion in game 3 of the Cleveland series, I am expecting more focus and determination from Boston as the series shifts back to the Garden on Saturday. The Celtics have looked better and played better than the Magic for the vast majority of the first two games, and as many have noted they looked more locked in and focused than they have all season long. Also, they haven't blown Orlando out in either contest so hopefully the Celtics aren't suffering from the same delusions of grandeur that plagued them against Cleveland. The downside is that the Celtics will have had 3 days of everyone writing about how great they are before game 3 tips off, so there will be ample opportunities for them to get drunk on their own kool-aid.

The Celtics have been an enigma all year long, however on the other side of the ball the Magic have been just as perplexing in this series. Orlando was rusty and disengaged in game one, and understandably so after coming off relatively easy playoff series against both Charlotte and Atlanta, so everyone (including yours truly) gave them a mulligan. But after another lackluster performance in game 2 where the Magic saw only a moderate and spotty improvement in their effort level, I am beginning to wonder whether or not these guys have it in them to deal with a physical Celtics team that relies on balanced scoring and hard defense to win.

Dwight Howard improved immensely in game 2, but he was the only Magician who didn't pull a disappearing act on Tuesday. Jameer Nelson labored through 38 minutes and managed only 9 points on 4-12 shooting, Vince Carter chucked up fade-away after fade-away en route to a 5-15 stink bomb that also involved him bricking two free throws in the final minute that could have brought Orlando to within a point of the Celtics, while Rashard Lewis and Matt Barnes no-showed for the second straight game. Keep in mind that a lot of this has to do with the Celtic defense, but Orlando has played well in stretches for both games which leads me to believe that they could do something about this situation if they wanted to. For instance, Orlando was able to pretty much bludgeon the Celtics by playing Dwight Howard and Marcin Gortat at the same time, giving them a huge edge in the paint and on the glass. And despite a brain fart to end the game, J.J. Redick has played great defense on Ray Allen and been far more effective than the clearly injured Matt Barnes, yet Barnes is still in the rotation. It's not like Stan Van Gundy doesn't know this, yet he hasn't made the necessary adjustments to give his team an edge.

I suppose it's also possible that the Magic have no answers for the Celtics. boston has been playing defense about as well as anyone and have been able to knock Orlando out of their comfort zone for nearly this entire series. Big edges that the Magic were supposed to have (points in the paint, rebounds, fouls) have evaporated, while the Celtics have exposed Orlando's flaws and forced the Magic into playing the game that they want them to play. I don't know if the Celtics can keep a lid on the Orlando shooters for the rest of the series, but if they keep defending with the same effort and intensity level that they've displayed thus far they have as good a chance as anyone.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that Orlando will perform better at some point, but I am still not that worried because the dirty secret of this series is that the Celtics haven't played great yet either. Boston has done an admirable job of defending with grit and intensity and have battled Orlando to a draw in the areas where the Magic should have dominated, but they haven't played a complete offensive game yet. Thus far Kevin Garnett has struggled in both games, and while open looks haven't been as easy to come by against the Orlando defense, KG has clanked a lot of shots that normally go down. I don't believe that Orlando can match up with all of the Celtics and keep them from being at least somewhat effective on offense. It is simply too hard to cover Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen at the same time, and that's before you take into account the fact that you can see Pierce salivating every time Vince Carter tries to D him up.

I guess I am hoping for success from the Celtics on Saturday but in the spirit of this year's team and Boston sports in general I will brace for the worst. No matter how you slice it, Orlando is in trouble and really needs to shake things up to have a puncher's chance in this series. I am not sure if the Celtics are good enough and the Magic bad enough for this series to end up in a sweep, but after two consecutive stink bombs it is getting harder and harder to imagine Orlando putting up much of a fight in the rest of this series. The Celtics seem to have their number, Orlando knows this and it looks at this point like there is nothing they can do about it. We'll just have to wait and see, game 3 is on Saturday. Until then, keep rooting for the Celtics and think of some condescending chants for Dwight Howard and Vince Carter for game night.

Anticipating Adjustments

Well it certainly wasn't pretty, but I'll take a victory any way it happens in the Eastern Conference Finals against a team as formidable as the Orlando Magic. The Celtics did an absolutely fantastic job of defending Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis yesterday and despite almost collapsing in the fourth quarter came out of game one with a 92-88 victory. There's a lot of stuff to discuss and digest, but more than anything I'm wondering what if anything we can take away from this game and use to divine more information about how the rest of this playoff series will play out.

First the good: Dwight Howard was frustrated from wire to wire yesterday and the Celtics' front court did an outstanding job of making Howard work for every inch of position on the interior and sent him to the line to earn his points whenever possible. The combination ok Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace battled Howard to a standstill, forcing him out of the paint and his comfort zone without help from the other Celtics, allowing the rest of Boston's players to stay close to the bevy of perimeter shooters on the Orlando roster. The result of some spectacular interior defense was a solid defensive effort for almost the entire game, excepting the last 7 minutes of the game where Orlando just started knocking down more shots than they had been all game long.

Undoubtedly Orlando will make adjustments and play better in game 2, not only because they'll have a greater sense of urgency to win but also because they should be acclimated to the level of intensity for this series after cakewalking their way through the first two rounds. Also, I suspect that Stan Van Gundy will make adjustments on offense to help his team get more and better open shots than they were able to muster yesterday.

It's clear at this point that the Celtics are extremely well equipped to defend Dwight Howard in post up scenarios, so I doubt you'll see a whole lot of that tomorrow and throughout the rest of the series. Kendrick Perkins is especially patient and disciplined on defense and has had tremendous success in the past defending Howard's "post game," so I am fully expecting to see a lot more high screen & roll plays from the Magic as we go forward in this series. Getting Howard, Jameer Nelson and the basketball moving more is Orlando's best shot at creating open looks for themselves, and despite the fact that the Celtics defend this play very well it could be a great way for Orlando to establish a better rhythm on offense. Howard stands to benefit from more pick & roll basketball, but I actually see that play as a great way to get Rashard Lewis going, as defensive rotations to cover the screen & roll will lead to more open looks on the perimeter for Lewis as well as opportunities for him to use his quickness and create off the dribble.

The Magic will undoubtedly come back harder in game 2 and should be favored to even up the series, but the Celtics can take some encouragement from the fact that they beat Orlando despite playing a less than flawless game themselves. Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo both had below average games yesterday and should play better as the series goes on, and you have to expect that the second unit will step up and contribute more than they did yesterday, although they were hardly terrible in game 1.

The KG/Rondo match-ups are considerably less favorable in this series, but thanks to Boston's balance in the starting unit, the Celtics were able to generate buckets thanks to both Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Allen was terrific despite almost blowing the game by dribbling the ball off his own foot (as Tyler Fox said, "way to Tony Allen that one, Ray") and then not boxing out Jameer Nelson on a free-throw attempt in the closing seconds, and I am expecting more and better things from him as the series goes on. Ray has a speed and quickness advantage on every Orlando defender he is likely to see, and although Redick did a great job in the 4th quarter of chasing Ray off the 3-point line and around screens, I'm not sure the Magic can do that for 48 minutes.

The real key to this series, however could very well be Paul Pierce. After getting swallowed by LeBron James and the Cavs in the last round, Pierce put up an impressive and efficient (despite 5 turnovers) stat line yesterday. The Celtics isolated Pierce against Vince Carter, and the Truth's eyes seemed to light up at the opportunity. This is wild speculation, but I expect to see the best out of Pierce this series as long as Vince Carter is checking him. Pierce is as quick and waaaaaaaaaaay more physical than Carter, and from the looks of things he took a lot of joy in dismantling a guy who got drafted 5 slots ahead of him in 1998 and is Paul's only competition for "biggest injury faker in the NBA" (see? I'm not afraid to zing the hometown guys).

Perhaps the biggest key to take away from yesterday's game is that despite the stout Orlando defense, the Celtics are a balanced team that can get a spark from four of its starters and occasionally the bench. This series is going to be close, hotly contested and beautiful to watch if you are a basketball fan, so stay tuned!

What Really Makes Orlando Go?

It's very late so I am going to keep this one short and sweet (there's a first time for everything, right?). First I have to say congrats to the Celtics for overcoming a great team like Cleveland and defying trends and expectations to this point. I truly did not believe that Boston had the focus or desire to beat Cleveland, and I am as shocked as nearly everyone else by the manner in which Boston dominated the league's best team. I never doubted that the Celtics could rise to the occasion, they just hadn't shown any signs of life since Christmas and got worked over by the elite of the NBA this year so I really didn't think it was in the cards. Were the Celtics playing a game of Texas Hold 'em, I would have pegged their odds of beating the Cavs as equivalent to catching a 2 outer for the righteous suck-out, I just had no idea that the Cavs were apparently bluffing. Neither did anyone else.

As daunting as beating LeBron James and Cleveland was for this veteran Celtic team, I fear that the Orlando Magic may be better than the Cavs and thus the next challenge for Boston will be even more difficult. No, Orlando doesn't have anyone like Lebron James or Kobe Bryant that can absolutely light the world on fire and beat you by themself, but they do have talent and depth through the end of their bench and play beautiful basketball together. They have a coach in Stan Van Gundy who definitely won't shit the bed a la Mike Brown and gift wrap the series for the Celtics. They're also 27-3 since March 1st, and 8-0 in the playoffs thus far. Nobody has even come close to touching these guys in two whole months, and from the way they beat Atlanta in the last round (a team that owned the Boston Celtics this year, by the way) in record fashion with an average margin of victory of 25 points per game. The Magic are a buzz saw right now, and the Celtics are the lucky ones who get to see if they can withstand a vicious Orlando attack that is relentless on both ends of the floor.

So how do the Celtics pull this one off? What is the key to the series? The answer might not be where you think it is on the court. Although Dwight Howard is Orlando's best player and the focal point of the team, as I have spent a long time discussing before, he is not the crucial element of the Magic's plan of attack. Really, if you want to beat Orlando you have to do two things: don't beat yourself with turnovers or bad shots (yikes), and defend the hell out of the three-point line when the Magic have the ball. Accomplishing the former may be impossible for this Celtic team, but they can achieve the latter if they win one key match-up on the perimeter.

Though the likes of Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett loom large on the court, I believe the series will be decided by the two littlest guys on the floor for both these teams. If Rajon Rondo can contain Jameer Nelson in this series, the Celtics can and should win. If he can't and Nelson gets free, the Celtics and their fans had better get ready for several long nights and an awfully short playoff series. Jameer Nelson is not only Orlando's best and most efficient shooter, but he also uses his dribble penetration to create open looks on the perimeter for other Orlando shooters as well as scoring opportunities in the paint for Dwight Howard. The Celtics must keep Nelson on the perimeter in this series and put a hand in his face or else face the consequences. Rajon Rondo has the tools for the job, and I believe that his offense will be crucial to defending Nelson as well (if Nelson has to chase an active Rondo up and down the court, he will have less energy to shoot dagger jumpers all night long).

But what about Howard? The Celtics have a slew of defenders to take on Dwight Howard straight up, and although Howard has improved his post game this year I still believe that he is secondary to what the Magic do on offense and is not the biggest threat to the Celtics in this series. Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace have all had success defending Howard in the past, and although the young big man can now drive a little bit more effectively if he doesn't start with great position on the interior, I am still more than willing to live with whatever he gets out of post up situations. I still believe that he is ineffective if you can body him out of the paint and push him more than an arms length from the rim, shoddy footwork, below average hands and poor passing skills really hurt Howard in this area. If the Celtics are able to play Howard straight up (they should be), then I like the Celtics' chances of defending the three-point line and hampering Orlando's offensive attack a lot.

Speaking of three-point shooters, the other match up to watch in this series is Rashard Lewis against Kevin Garnett. Lewis has killed the Celtics and Garnett this year with his quickness, and he has proven to be quite challenging for Garnett to stick with after his knee injury robbed him of nearly all his lateral quickness. Though he is only marginally taller than Antawn Jamison, Lewis is a better offensive player and a tougher defender, so KG won't have nearly as easy of a time in this series as he did in Cleveland, and the Celtic attack could suffer mightily as a result.

The only area where the Celtics could really hurt the Magic is on the wing, mostly because Vince Carter has to guard somebody, and whomever that is for Boston will have a mismatch on offense. That would be all well and good under normal circumstances, however neither Ray Allen or Paul Pierce have been able to play consistently well in the postseason so I have my doubts about the Celtics in this area. Pierce won't have to work as hard on defense as he did last series (though if you sleep on guys like Carter, Matt Barnes, and Pietrus they'll kill you), so hopefully we can get more out of the captain this time around. Neither Barnes (who has a bad back, by the way) or Vince Carter are well equipped to chase Ray Allen around screens on offense, but although Ray has carried the Celtics sometimes throughout these playoffs he hasn't had it every night and the Celtics will need more out of him against such a tough defensive team.

I may not fear Howard on offense, but he makes the Magic an elite defensive team that will certainly give the Celtics fits at times. On the other side, the Celtics have been playing great defense in the postseason, however Orlando is younger, faster, stronger and just as disciplined, so the Celtics have to be considered big underdogs in this series. I will really enjoy watching these teams square off, it may be an ugly slugfest of a series but it should be good. More analysis and commentary will follow.