Spring Thawing

Consider this your courtesy wake up call: the home stretch of the NBA season has arrived!  With only three weeks to go before the beginning of the real NBA season, teams in the hunt for a playoff spot are either picking up the intensity level (see: Orlando, 9-2 in March.  More on them later) or wilting under the pressure (see Portland: losing at home to the 76ers and making me look like an ass),  all of which makes for exciting basketball and good reading.  Add to that a smothering portion of MVP debate and the serious beginnings of draft chatter and it makes life interesting and meaningful as a basketball fan.  

If you were a smart fan who isn't totally addicted to watching any and every NBA game that's on TV, you've slept through most of the season (much like I slept through most of my morning classes in college...) and are now just in time for all of the excitement and the games that actually matter*.  In the hours you'd normally spend facebooking, gambling or reading about grossly fattening food on your computer at work, you could catch up on all of the major story lines of the NBA season from D-Wade's rebirth to Tyson Chandler's foot-gate (patent pending).  If you do some digging and stick with me, you'll know everything about this season whether you want to or not.  Soon enough, you'll be passing for a loyal die hard fan and accusing some of your peers and coworkers of being bandwagon hugging phonies (you sly fox, you) and hitting your peak of interest right as the playoffs begin.  If this describes you, then may I suggest first that you watch tomorrow night's contest between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics, and second that you keep reading (you have to in order to find the funny joke attached to that asterisk from earlier).

No matter what kind of basketball fan you are, tomorrow night's game will be for you.  It's the final meeting between the Celtics, who come in ranked second in the East, and the third ranked Magic who trail Boston by only one game.  This game is also Orlando's last chance to even the season series between the two teams (they are currently down 2-1) and neutralize a potential playoff tiebreaker that could determine home court advantage between these two teams.  Oh yeah, and Orlando beat the Celtics 86-79 in Boston the last time these clubs met, which means this is a shot at revenge for the Celtics, who are finally getting healthier after a horrible month that saw at times seven different rotation players out of the lineup with injuries.  And I haven't even mentioned all of the talented players involved...  yet.

I imagine I'll have a fair bit to talk about after the game tomorrow, so for now I want to focus on one issue that will likely come into play during tomorrow's game.  For once, it doesn't have anything to do with Stephon Marbury (though I suppose he could be involved in a way) or any of the other Celtics for that matter, but instead with their largest opponent in tomorrow's game.  And no, I don't mean Marcin Gortat.  I am talking about Dwight Howard, Olympic Gold Medalist and Orlando's All-Star Center.  

If you've followed the NBA this year (those of you who are just catching up, take note), you know that Dwight Howard is having a beastly year in the territory of the all time greats with his 21 points/14 rebounds/3 blocks per game average this year and has received some nominations for Defensive Player of the Year from members of the national media.  Howard leads the NBA in blocks and seems to be able to get a hand on almost anything that's less than 18 feet from the floor, consistently providing jaw dropping highlights and dare I say super human feats of athleticism.  Hardly a game goes by where Dwight does not spring up from an entangled forest of bodies into a level of the stratosphere that even stealth bombers can't reach to swat a shot into the fifth row to a chorus of oohs and aahs and a dizzying array of flashbulbs.  The crowd roars, Howard roars and the player whose shot is now a temporary souvenir is humbled.  Somewhere, Kevin Harlan shouts so loud that Charles Barkley gets startled and drops his bear claw.  Howard truly is something to behold, and it shocks me to think about how dominant he could possibly be with another five years of experience and training, but Defensive Player of the Year?  I think not.

First of all, defense is more than blocking shots and grabbing rebounds (though doing those things well surely helps), and in that regard I can think of several other players in the NBA right now who are far more deserving of the award.  This however, is a whole new can of worms that I have just cracked open but will now discard and open later.  The truth is, I don't even need to go into that to sink Howard's chances at DPOY.  Instead, I'm going to dissect and dismantle his shot-blocking, which is the main reason he's considered for the award (only four paragraphs to get to the damn point today, someone give me a medal!).  

You see, not all shot blocks are created equal, and the lion's share of Dwight Howard's blocks are inherently less useful than others.  Before you accuse me of being some kind of Calvinist, give me a chance to explain myself.  Remember the superhuman display of athleticism I described involving Dwight Howard?  What's the result of that play?  The Magic are still on defense and their opponent gets to inbound the basketball from the sideline and run a set play.  The other team gets another chance to score, and they get to do it comfortably using sets they've practiced all year long.  Even if Howard blocks the shot with only a little time left on the clock, the other team still gets to try and run an inbounds play to get an open look immediately, which will give them a reasonably good shot more often than Orlando would like.  Is that supposed to be great defense?  It looks good, sure, but the net gain for his team off of such a play is minimal.

Now consider what happens if instead of swatting the shot off the court as hard as he could, Dwight Howard simply went up, accepted the ball with his hands and either tipped it to a teammate or to himself.  Though it isn't as sexy as spiking a basketball into oblivion and it's likely too subtle for an ESPN highlight, the result of that play is much greater than before.  By blocking shots and keeping them in play, Howard would greatly increase the chances that his team gains possession of the basketball.  This takes away a possession form your opponent while giving you an extra opportunity, which is pretty much the exact formula for playing successful basketball.  Also, blocking shots with the aim of gaining possession tends to lead to more easy basket opportunities via the fast break and more chances to catch your opponent at a defensive disadvantage after such a play.  

All of the guys who are considered elite shot blockers and defenders do this, from Josh Smith, Tim Duncan and Ben Wallace circa 2003 all the way to the G.O.A.T., Bill Russell.  For whatever reason, Dwight Howard doesn't do this, and therefore doesn't deserve to be in the conversation of elite defenders in this league.  If the goal of defense is to get the ball back without giving up points, Dwight Howard is a good but not great means to accomplish that end.  He prevents the other team from scoring once, but also tends to give them another shot at it.  Until that changes, I'm not convinced that Howard deserves it more than Kevin Garnett, Josh Smith, Shane Battier or even Dwyane Wade.  

And while I'll buy that unleashing a resounding swat into the third row has value as an intimidator and can alter the way the opposition attacks the defense, I think that any kind of block is psychologically damaging and will serve as a reminder about who controls the paint, especially if it turns into a fast break layup or dunk on the other end.  And sure, if you deflect the ball inbounds there's always a chance it goes right to an opponent who could magically be in position to score easily, but again, I'm not sold on that scenario yielding more points over the long run than allowing the other team to run an inbounds play for a shot over the long run.  This is probably a woefully incomplete discussion of the topic, but it's m two cents, anyhow.  Whatever, at least I know that Red Auerbach agrees with me.   

*Disclaimer: less than half of the remaining games actually matter.  

Swept Away in a Tangent

The Celtics are losing ground on the top teams of the NBA.  Injuries are rampant and Boston, as John Hollinger pointed out today, is having to rely too much on Mikki Moore and Stephon Marbury (who looks about as rusty as he should be at this point) as a result.  But I am not worried yet, because there are still 17 games left in the regular season, and the Celtics have a relatively easy week coming up during which they can hopefully get healthy and get Marbury and Moore in tune with the system they're now playing in.  At this point, I'd rather be fully healthy and a lower seed (even third in the East wouldn't be too bad) than carrying nagging injuries into the postseason as a result of trying to keep pace with Cleveland and LA for the best overall record.  

I know the Celtics had some trouble winning on the road in the first two rounds of last year's postseason, but it's important not to forget that Boston closed out Detroit on the road in the Conference Finals AND set a Finals record with a 24-point second half comeback in Los Angeles to win game four.  Don't remember it?  Fortunately, you can stop by any time and we can watch it together (WARNING: there is no way to turn off the DVD commentary).  If the Celtics can get healthy and use this time to work the new players into the rotation at the expense of a few wins, that's fine.  At the very least, it will allow the Celtics to fly a bit more under the radar and to possibly play the "nobody believes in us!" card (can you even do this as the defending champs?).  And if Rajon Rondo, Marbury, Moore, and Kevin Garnett can come back to full strength in time to heat up for a postseason run, then I firmly believe that the Celtics are talented enough to blow the doors off the Lakers again in the Finals this year.  Maybe I'm drinking too much Marbury Kool-Aid, but I can't help but be excited by his possible contributions to the Celtics' second unit.

For the time being, I'm standing pat on the Celtics and waiting to judge them until they're healthy (not a sure thing by any means, which is why I'm typing this post with my fingers crossed instead of using the normal two-finger-hunt-and-peck, ha ha).  Hopefully by next Wednesday's home game against Miami (can be seen on ESPN, for those of you out of market fans) there will be some signs of improvement from the Celtics.  Until then, I'm taking everything I see with a grain of salt.  That being the case, I think I'll take this opportunity to go off on a tangent about Dirk Nowitzki.

I know Nowitzki plays for Mark Cuban's Dallas Mavericks who don't exactly fit under the normal parameter's you'd expect from a blog entitled "C of Green" (unless the Mavs are wearing their ugly-as-sin green uniforms),  I'm tackling this issue regardless.  Rick Carlisle plays Dirk Nowitzki for too damn long during games.  The last two times I've seen the lanky German play, Carlisle (who rode the bench to an NBA title with the Celtics in 1986) has kept Nowitzki on the floor for the entire first quarter as well as the first half of the second quarter before spelling him on the bench.  I don't want to pretend to know better than an NBA head coach (I'll leave that to Simmons, thank you), but it was evident to me that Nowitzki was fatigued during those stretches and his team struggled as a result.  

Last night in Portland, Dirk played his heart out and carried his Mavericks to victory with an impressive and efficient 29 points and 10 rebounds, but by the end of the first quarter and into the second, Nowitzki was dragging on defense and didn't seem to have the legs to move and rotate when Portland attacked the Dallas defense.  If you ask me, the main reason for this was because Dirk played until the 5:48 mark of the second quarter before getting his first breather on the bench.  Fortunately, Carlisle was able to hid Nowitzki for much of the game inside a zone defense that confounded the Trail Blazers and limited them almost exclusively to perimeter shots without any kind of ball movement.  Still, Nowitzki stuck out like a sore thumb on defense at times, and more often than not he was at least partially responsible for giving up many of Portland's easy baskets out of their half court offense.

As if the lack of energy on defense weren't bad enough, these long stretches f playing time are affecting Nowitzki's offensive game as well.  Granted, I didn't see this last night, in fact Dirk made the three of us watching at home groan repeatedly after unleashing some ridiculous offensive moves and splashing some sweet fade-away jumpers over the Blazer defense, but trust me, it's hurting his game.  I've seen Nowitzki disappear for stretches in Dallas' offense, due partially to his teammates' inability to find him with the basketball, but also because Dirk does a lot of standing around and often doesn't fight to get into better scoring position.  Sounds symptomatic of fatigue, doesn't it?  During one game against New Orleans that the Fox and I watched together, Dallas failed to get the ball to Nowitzki for four solid minutes at the beginning of the second quarter, prompting us to wonder out loud "why is Dirk tiring himself out on the floor if they aren't going to give him the ball?"  I'm not asking Dallas to reinvent the wheel, hell I'm not even asking them to cut his minutes, just to distribute them differently so that Dirk can play with more energy.

Now I suspect that Dirk has to carry so much of the load because Dallas is very thin right now and don't have a ton of reliable size to come off the bench (hell, they start Eric Dampier for cryin' out loud), but still, he needs a rest very badly.  I feel that if Dirk got to rest at the end of the first and the beginning of the second (you know, like most NBA players do), then he'd have more energy to expend on defense or to run the floor.  In order for Dallas to contend for a title again, Dirk has to be able to play a complete game.  Dallas got to the Finals in 2006 because they played serious defense, and having Dirk play both sides of the ball was a huge part of their success as a team.  Right now, he can't do that because he needs to create almost all of Dallas' offense as well as provide most of the team's size in the middle.  The Mavericks need size in the middle worse than the Celtics do, and until they get some help or exorcise Dampier's contract, I fear they cannot improve.

Oh yeah, and if you want to get technical, allow me to successfully demonstrate how Dirk Nowitzki is soooooo related enough to the Celtics to merit some space on the C of Green...  As I mentioned, Rick Carlisle, the coach responsible for beating Nowitzki like a rented mule this year, was drafted by Red Auerbach and played for the Celtics.  And did you know that when Dirk became available for the 1998 NBA Draft Rick Pitino (a.k.a the Killer of All Hope), then GM of the Celtics, raved about Dirk, likening him to Larry Bird, and promised to take him with the tenth overall pick of the draft?  Boston didn't get the chance to draft Nowitzki, who was taken ninth by the Bucks before being shipped to Dallas for Robert "Tractor" Traylor. and settled for a swing man from Kansas named Paul Pierce instead.  And did I mention those ugly green road uniforms?  'Nuff said.