Friday, February 20, 2009

Better Days

I just checked and it turns out that I'm contractually obligated as a journalist to spend at least 500 words writing an "oh shit" column about Kevin Garnett's right knee and the Celtics' ugly (and I do mean ugly) loss to the Jazz last night in Utah.  My heart was in my throat last night and my mind was racing after Garnett came up lame in the second quarter and struggled to put any weight on his right knee, however after some sleep, hookah, beer and an afternoon sitting in the sun I'm not feeling nearly so heartbroken today as I did last night.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not sunny on the injury, but I'm not exactly going to declare the Celtics' season over because of it.

In case any of you didn't know, KG has flown back to Boston for an MRI, and at this point it seems as though the Celtics are wisely erring on the side of caution with their superstar forward.  Boston will miss him during the remaining games of the road trip, but this option is better than letting a warrior like Garnett (who'd play on a bleeding stump of his leg if you let him) tough it out and risk making a minor injury worse.  This injury seems somewhat similar to Garnett's abdominal strain from last year, with one significant wrinkle that could cause problems down the road for the Celtics (more on that a bit later).

First of all, the Celtics have shown that they can win without Garnett in the lineup.  They proved this last year around this time, and I expect them to be able to do so again this year.  In fact, losing Garnett for a week or two could end up being beneficial for the Celtics in the long run.  Without the Big Ticket in the lineup, both Glen Davis and leon Powe are going to get more touches and more minutes in the rotation, providing the team an opportunity to get more out of two role players who will need to play big in the playoffs.  Giving Davis and Powe more time with the starters now is just a warm up for May and (hopefully) June.  This is an opportunity for both players to grow and develop, hopefully they can take advantage of it.

The important thing to remember is that no one player has to shoulder the load that KG normally carries, and that even without their emotional leader the Celtics have a good core of veteran players that have proven to be tough enough to carry a team by themselves.  If Kendrick Perkins can step up a bit with the other front court reserves, the Celtics should still be able to win games, even against some of the Association's tougher defenses.  The early prognosis is that Garnett may be ready to play against the Pacers at home once the road trip is over, so with a little bit of luck the Celtics should be back to business as usual in a week.

But let's not count our chickens before they hatch, people.  When Garnett missed time last year, the Celtics were way ahead in the standings and had a very small chance of losing the best record in the league and home court advantage throughout the playoffs (which, as it turns out, was HUGE with a capital HUGE).  That was then, this is now.  Today, the Celtics trail the Lakers for the best overall record and aren't even first in the East (the Cavs are two one-thousandths of a point ahead of Boston right now), trailing Cleveland by a small margin.  The Celtics were having their fair share of issues just keeping pace with the NBA's best before Garnett's injury, and now they have to make up ground without their best player (definitely a different discussion for a different time, but I stand by this).  

The implications of this race for the best record both in the Conference and in the NBA are twofold.  First, having home court advantage is a big boost, especially for an emotional team that relies heavily on falling jump shots to get wins (I'm no stat geek, but I believe that a home crowd can focus players and help make shots fall).  Cleveland took the Celtics to the last possession of the seventh game last year, and given their off-season improvements, the Celtics will need every edge they can get against LeBron James and the Cavaliers.  Although the Celtics were able to win road games in Detroit and Los Angeles last year on their championship run (including the huge comeback against LA in game 4 of the Finals), having game sevens in Boston will be vital for the Celtics' success this year in the playoffs.

Secondly, and most importantly, having the best record matters because favorable playoff match-ups on the road to the NBA FInals.  If the Celtics can't pass Cleveland for the best record in the East, then Boston is looking at #3 Orlando in the second round of the playoffs, while Cleveland would get the winner of the Hawks/Heat series.  Although I firmly believe that Dwight Howard is extremely overrated and that the Celtics can beat Orlando in a seven game series, they aren't a team that I want to play in the second round.  With Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and now Rafer Alston on the perimeter, the Magic are a dangerous team that's as talented as any in the NBA.  Not having to play them while simultaneously forcing Cleveland to take them on would be huge for Boston's hopes of repeating as champions.  

In other news, Joe Smith wants to play for the Celtics, which would be just what the doctor ordered for the Celtics' bench, the Blazers failed to make a move for Gerald Wallace (which has me so steamed that I may start a Blazers blog too just to write 3,000 words about why the Blazers should have pulled the trigger), Tyson Chandler is a Hornet again, and Amar'e Stoudemire's eyes are falling out.  Also, Ray Utech is unreliable and despite his firm assertion to the contrary, should always choose will-call for his Blazer tickets from now on.  The last two thirds of that Blazers/Grizzlies game was awesome, though.

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