All In

If the Boston Celtics want to win game 7 of the NBA Finals, they'd better be. I just hope they got all the bad juju out in that game 6 stink bomb, but this is an incredibly tall order. You kind of had to see an LA victory in game 6 coming, and although it's only happened a few times in NBA history I still firmly believe that if anyone can pull this off, it's these Celtics. I have no idea who will win, but if Boston continues to play defense effectively and goes from Arby's bad to just shit sandwich awful, they stand a really good chance of winning the title tonight.

In order to win, the Celtics need to take care of the basketball and win the rebounding battle. This will be tough without Kendrick Perkins, but perhaps his absence will inspire Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace to step up and shoulder their share of the load. But it doesn't just fall on the bigs, everyone on the court has to box out and pursue the basketball tonight. Really, it comes down to playing with energy and being focused, decisive and aggressive, but rebounding is so hugely important to controlling the pace of the game and limiting the Lakers' opportunities.

Offensively, the Celtics just have to be in a higher gear than they were on Tuesday and move the ball with precision. Shots will fall if the Celtics take care of the other areas of the game, they just need to share the ball, protect it, and challenge the Laker defense to play well twice in a row (I don't think they have it in them).

I don't believe that Ron Artest and Lamar Odom are going to make the same type of shots they made in game 6, and I hope and pray that the Celtics can stifle the other Lakers and goad kobe into launching contested fade-aways while his teammates stand around flat-footed and watch. The Celtics have nothing to lose in this game, on paper the Lakers have every edge that matters. On the court, it's been even thus far and I don't see the Celtics being that bad or the Lakers being that good again.

Let's go.

The Ominous Return of the Mamba

And I don't mean ominous for the Celtics, either. You can't get on the internet or turn on the TV today without tripping over a story about how Kobe Bryant almost burned a hole through the parquet floor last night and almost singlehandedly carried the Lakers to victory, but almost completely lost in the adulation for what was truly an impressive virtuoso performance was any analysis of how poorly the Lakers defended during that stretch of play. Kobe Bryant scored 19 straight points for the Lakers on 7-9 shooting, but a 1 point game turned into a double digit deficit for Los Angeles in the process, and nobody seems interested in discussing why. Were the Celtics just executing great offense and weathering the storm by getting lots of buckets, or was it something else?

I say that it is both. The Celtics showed great mental toughness and refused to wilt in the face of Kobe's greatness or overreact to his hot streak by leaving other Lakers open, but I also noticed something about this stretch that influenced the course of the game on both ends for the Lakers. During the 3rd quarter as Kobe hit ridiculous fall-away after ridiculous fall-away, I saw everyone else on the Lakers standing around and watching flat footed. LA would get the ball over half court, give it to Kobe (if he didn't have it already) and then go stand around far away from him and wait for the "Black Mamba" to strike. The fact that Kobe proceeded to stick just about everything he threw up there makes the point that this kind of offense is much easier to defend against totally moot, but the fact that this attitude permeated the Lakers' "defense" is worth discussing at length.

Basketball is a game of rhythm, and the players on the floor can lose their way quickly if they aren't involved in the flow of the game. When Kobe decided to take over the game offensively, he may have very well doomed his team to failure by removing all of them from the action and essentially releasing them from ownership of what was going on out there. If Kobe is going to do it all anyhow, why bother staying involved when I could passively watch the show from the best seat in the house? Despite the incredible production of Kobe for this stretch of the game, the Lakers' offense was incredibly stagnant and they let that infect their defensive game too. It's hard to stay focused on moving, rotating and running when half the time you're standing there and watching a teammate freelance for 20 seconds at a time.

Am I too harsh? Maybe. Am I simply a hater who is looking for any excuse to deride Kobe? Probably, but I still feel like my point here is valid. It's one thing to score 23 points in a row for your team by working within the flow of the offense and relying on your teammates to help you get open looks, but it is a completely different animal to pound the air out of the ball, take one screen from a teammate and launch an off-balance 20-footer with a hand in your face. Is it ridiculously impressive that Kobe scored so many points while averaging a 9.8 on the degree-of-difficulty scale? Absolutely, but the whole time it was happening I was saying to the Fox "it's ok, this is what we want. It's fool's gold, they won't win like this." And it's true, those shots are fool's gold. The Celtics gave Kobe those shots two years ago and won the title because of it, they're doing the same thing this year and Kobe is obliging them. This time around he's made more shots and his teammates have gotten better, but as long as the Celtics can get Kobe to take these shots, I like their chances to win the title this year.

Contrasting Kobe's all out barrage of shots, the Celtics once again played a balanced game and came away with a win, thanks to inspired play from Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen, Nate Robinson and Rasheed Wallace. Everyone chipped in on both ends and played a role in the Celtics' win, and despite some sloppy play and a late game scare, it was beautiful to watch. The Celtics need to take care of the ball and focus a little bit more on running better offense, but they are well on track to capturing the 18th title in franchise history. Prior to game 5, neither the Celtics or the Lakers had won back to back games in this Finals, so winning three in a row seemed ridiculous. After watching Kobe go into mamba mode for the past two games and seeing the way the Celtics have played, I think that Boston could very well wrap up this series on Tuesday. They pretty much have to, because as good as the Celtics have been thus far I don't know if they can win a game 7 in LA.

Though each game of the 2010 Finals has been maddeningly different than the previous contest, the correlation between winning the battle of the paint and the glass and winning the game has remained constant. Without a healthy Andrew Bynum, it seems as though the Lakers will have a tough time winning those battles and the ball games. Although the Celtics only won the rebounding battle by one board, they had a field day in the paint unlike any of the other games in this series thus far. Some of those points in the paint came in transition (which was great to see), but lots of them were made possible by the fact that the Lakers were missing Bynum's physicality and shot-blocking on the interior. Without their young and talented center, the Laker bench hurts (because Lamar Odom has to start) and their interior defense and offense struggles mightily.

As a Celtics fan I hope that Bynum is still hobbled after a long flight to Los Angeles and that the Celtics come out with twice the focus and intensity that they displayed yesterday. It is so on right now I am running out of hyperbole to conjure, so I shall leave it at that. You owe it to yourself to watch game six on Tuesday, so don't make excuses!

We're just a little bit more than an hour away from the tip off of the 2010 NBA Finals and I still have no idea what is going to happen. The Lakers have been unstoppable offensively, but the Celtics have been playing stifling defense and have already closed out two of the best teams in the NBA this year (as well as 3 of the 4 best players in the league). The Lakers haven't played great defense and haven't seen a defensive team like the Celtics, but the Celtics haven't had to stop a team with as many weapons as the Lakers. Cleveland and Orlando aren't chopped liver on offense, but both of those teams relied an awful lot on one player to make things happen. The Lakers have a slew of those guys, and they utilize a system that is much harder to defend than your average screen & roll. Either team could win this series, it's just going to come down to who can play a more complete basketball game 4 times. I may not know the outcome of the game, but I do know what the Celtics need to do to win this game.

First of all, I would like to see Rajon Rondo in attack mode early and often tonight. The Lakers have been terrible at defending the pick & roll for a long time now, and with an injured Andrew Bynum out there the Celtics need to make the Lakers defense rotate and move to open up opportunities all over the floor. Rondo is the engine that makes the Celtics go, and he is going to need to be focused, aggressive and determined to make the Lakers pay for leaving him open.

Secondly, I want Ray Allen to be in constant motion when the Celtics have the ball on offense. His movement creates lanes, angles and scoring opportunities for everyone on the floor, and its also a great way for the Celtics to physically punish the Lakers and tire them out. Either Kobe Bryant or Derek Fisher is going to have to chase Ray all over the floor, and they will pay for staying close to Allen.

On the same note, I also want the Celtics to set good, hard, LEGAL screens tonight. Derek Fisher especially sells calls very well (read that: flops) and is almost always protected by the refs, so it is important for the Celtics to curtail that portion of their game and not waste too many fouls on those kind of plays. It's important to find the middle ground and make sure that the Laker defenders take bumps when the Celtics have the ball, but the margin for error is so thin in a series like this that every call potentially counts (especially if you're Kendrick Perkins and 1 T away from a suspension).

I also need the Celtics to play with pace tonight and get easy scoring opportunities when they arise. If Kobe is going to defend Rajon Rondo, he is going to have to find him in transition and that could open up opportunities for the Celtics. Boston also does a great job of getting good perimeter looks off of the secondary fast break after dribble penetration by Rondo, and those shots being there or not could be the difference between victory and defeat.

I would also like to see the Celtics focus on taking Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol out of the game. As good as Kobe Bryant is and as important as he is to his team, the key to victory for the Celtics are the other Lakers. Overcommitting to Kobe leaves other Lakers open, hurts your chances on the glass (where guys like Odom and Gasol and the other Lakers generate a lot of good shots) and gets five guys involved in the offense instead of just one or two. If the Celtics can get Kobe to keep taking those hero shots and finish those possessions with rebounds, I am prepared to live with the results. If Boston lets Odom and Gasol run wild, we have no chance in this series.

As always, I'd like to see the Celtics take care of the basketball.

And lastly but perhaps most importantly, I want to see the Celtics come out and remind the Lakers what physical playoff basketball is all about. The Lakers have played the Celtics tough since losing in 2008, but this Celtics squad looks possessed and determined to take no prisoners in this series. If the Celtics can play their brand of basketball and take the LA "fans" out of the game early, I think they can win tonight and three more times in the series to capture the championship. We shall see, get psyched!

Know Your Enemy

Oh yes, it's officially on! The Lakers and the Celtics are just two days away from tipping off what promises to be a hard fought, close series to decide the NBA championship, and in the spirit of the Finals I thought it might be nice to get to know the Lakers a little bit so we can all appropriately hate them once game one of the Finals tips off on Thursday evening. Before we get too far into dissecting their roster, let's try and remember that this is not 2008, even though many of the faces on the court are the same. Both teams are different than they were two years ago, so I'm going to try and avoid drawing from that series to predict what will happen this time around. With that being said, let's get right to it.

The Los Angeles Lakers have perhaps one of the deepest and most talented teams in all of basketball and along with the Boston Celtics are one of the most balanced, dangerous teams in the NBA. Their roster features plenty of guys who can kill you on any given night, and they play a brand of basketball that maximizes their talents and presents opponents with match-up nightmares all over the floor. While they are still a finesse team that likes to outscore their opponents rather than relying on stifling defense for victories, these Lakers are not the same cream puffs that the Celtics eviscerated in June of 2008, especially when it comes to playing the Celtics.

Like most of Phil Jackson's teams that run the triangle offense, the Lakers do not feature a traditional distributor/dribble penetrator type of point guard. Instead, the Lakers have the time tested Derek Fisher, a left handed guard who has made a career of spotting up on the perimeter and hitting big shots in high pressure situations. Fisher punishes defenses for over committing to Kobe Bryant and always seems to hit one or two momentum changing shots per series. At this point in his career, Fisher is a defensive liability, especially when it comes to defending the pick & roll, which favors Boston immensely due to the emergence of Rajon Rondo as the Celtics' best player. The Celtics' coaching staff would be salivating at that match-up if they were likely to see it much in the Finals, but the truth is that Kobe Bryant (more on him soon) is going to spend the most time guarding Rondo, but fear not because Fisher will still have to try and guard somebody.

Next to Derek Fisher in the backcourt, the Lakers feature some guy named Kobe Bryant who is supposedly one of the greatest players of this era. If you look at the numbers for this postseason, Kobe has been playing out of his freaking mind and has performed well above even his own lofty standards. Kobe has gone for more than 30 points in 10 of his last 11 playoff games with far greater efficiency than normal and has also been stuffing the stat sheet with around 8 rebounds and 8 assists per game as well. Some extra rest before the playoffs seems to have revitalized him, and the challenge of beating a boston team that got the best of him two years ago is more than enough motivation for Bryant to stay extra focused during these NBA Finals. This is trouble for the Celtics, but it may not be as bad as it initially seems.

Yes, Kobe has been on fire from the field and is playing with incredible efficiency, however if you watched the Phoenix series you know that his shot selection is still questionable at best. Kobe unleashed a barrage of contested two point jumpers against Phoenix and just happened to make an astounding number of them. It happens. The shots he took are still, by and large, terrible for his team over the long run. Although Kobe makes more of those shots than anyone else in the league, he is selling himself short by settling for those looks, and if he doesn't hit at such an astonishing rate during the Finals the Lakers could be in deep trouble. In 2008, the Celtics gave Kobe those shots and lived with the results and I fully expect them to follow the same strategy this year. Although James Posey is gone and Kobe has grown as a player since 2008, the 2010 Celtics were able to disrupt LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in these playoffs with their current personnel, so it's not out of the question that they could do the same to Kobe.

In 2008, Paul Pierce and the Celtics feasted on the Lakers' small forward corps. Luke Walton and Vlad Radmanovich had no answer for Pierce defensively and barely made him work on both ends of the floor, and the mismatch was a major reason that the Celtics won the series. Unfortunately for the Celtics, the Lakers now feature Ron Artest at small forward who still remains an elite defender and has a long history with Paul Pierce. Though Artest has lost a step since his peak, he is still more than capable of shutting down more physical wing players thanks to his incredible strength and tenacity. Paul Pierce doesn't have the quickness to exploit Artest and has no hope of winning the physical battle, so despite his success in the Conference Finals against the Orlando Magic I am worried about Pierce's production in these Finals. Also, it is impossible to underrate the effect of having Artest on Pierce instead of Kobe Bryant, who should have much more energy for offense and will be free to defend Rajon Rondo. I'll live with whatever offense Artest can give the Lakers in this series, but I am terrified of the potential effect he could have on the defensive end.

Up front, the Lakers feature one of the biggest and longest tandems in all of basketball with Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Bynum provides all of the rebounding and interior toughness that the Lakers were lacking in 2008 (he missed the Finals with a knee injury) and was a big key to the Lakers' championship run last year. Fortunately for the Celtics, Bynum is once again battling a knee injury, and although he has played and will participate in the FInals, he has been inconsistent and isn't moving at full speed. The Celtics should go right at Bynum and involve him in the pick & roll, which will force him to move on defense and takes him out of his most effective role as a help defender and draw him away from the hoop. The Lakers have always been terrible at defending the pick & roll, and with Bynum hobbled, I expect to see a healthy dose of it in this series.

Pau Gasol is another matter completely. Gasol may be the most skilled big man in the NBA along with Dirk Nowitzki, and his passing, post game and soft touch with either hand are sure to give the Celtics some problems this year. While the lanky Spaniard was soft in 2008 and got ruthlessly picked on by Kevin Garnett in the Finals, he has used that bad memory as motivation and has worked on his toughness, defense and rebounding in the two years since then. Having Bynum to protect him has helped a lot, but Gasol is a different player than he was in 2008, especially when it comes to playing against the Celtics. Gasol's length won't bother the Celtics too much, however he is a dangerous player who may very well be the key to the series.

The Laker bench is not incredibly strong, yet it is also not weak and does have the potential to give the Celtics problems. Lamar Odom is a versatile forward who has unparalleled quickness and a reliable handle, though he lacks a jumper and sometimes disappears in big games. He has played better since getting punked by the Celtics in 2008, and like Gasol has used the lingering embarrassment as motivation to stick it to Boston every time they play. A healthy Garnett should be able to contain Odom to some degree, but his presence will be a major one in this year's Finals.

Flanking Odom on the bench is a shit sandwich composed of Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga. At times, Brown and Farmar have been effective, but overall the Laker bench is weak aside from Odom. While the Celtics' bench isn't exactly the deepest in the NBA, they should be able to handle the Laker reserves. Glen Davis, Nate Robinson, Tony Allen and Rasheed Wallace will all have favorable match-ups at times and will need to play big in order for the Celtics to win the championship this year.

Overall, this match-up is very even across the board. The Celtics have a distinct advantage at point guard and are even just about everywhere else, so I expect this series to be very close and hard fought throughout. In my mind, Kobe is likely to get his no matter what the Celtics try and do to stop him, and in most cases paying too much attention to Kobe just allows the other Lakers (many of whom are more than capable of creating their own offense) to get better shots. I would like to see the Celtics focus on shutting down Odom and Gasol and limiting Fisher in certain situations. As magnificent as Kobe Bryant is, he won't be able to bat the Celtics by himself (I wish he would try), so limiting the other Lakers and taking them out of their comfort zone will be key this series. Hopefully, Kobe will see single coverage and get the tunnel vision that has been a defining characteristic of his career and the Laker offense will sink into the muck against a tough, committed Celtic defense that is unlike anything Los Angeles has had to experience thus far.

Much like 2008, the Lakers have looked awfully impressive up to this point, but haven't had to play another elite defensive team in these playoffs. Without a healthy Bynum, this team slightly resembles the squad from 2008 that relied on simply outscoring its opponents to gain victory. The Lakers have learned since then and will play better defense this series, so I am more worried now than I was two years ago. I think Ron Artest could be a huge difference maker for the Lakers, but at the same time these Celtics are so balanced that they have been able to punish the best of the NBA even without stellar contributions from Paul Pierce. I'll have plenty more material tomorrow and on Thursday, just make sure you tune in and watch the games!

Hero-itis

At least the Celtics tried last night. I just wish the focus would have been, too. After looking dominant for the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Boston Celtics suffered a set back and lost their rhythm on a night when the Orlando Magic decided to show up and play. This loss wasn't totally disheartening and dreadful to watch (like game 3 of the Cleveland Series, for example), but it didn't lack in frustration, head scratchers or angry outbursts directed at my TV. A loss is never a good thing, and watching game 4 gave me PTSD flashbacks of this regular season where Orlando looked like world-beaters and the Celtics looked completely disjointed.

The Celtics looked like they all wanted to be the hero last night, and as a result the wheels completely fell off their offensive game. The Celtics couldn't or didn't want to move the ball last night, and they let the Orlando defense clamp down and force Boston into uncomfortable situations. The Celtics not named Ray Allen could not buy a basket from downtown (Orlando was not great at shooting the 3, but the Celtics were AWFUL) yet still chucked up enough threes to build a brick house (Ray Allen: 5-7 on 3-pointers in game 4, other Celtics: 0-11. Yikes). The Celtics weren't listless during game 4 and actually did a remarkable job of coming back to force OT considering how bad they were, but they simply couldn't get anything done on offense and couldn't stop a fired up Magic team.

Speaking of the Magic, this is probably a situation where I need to give credit where it is due. Orlando played hard for an entire game for the first time this series and executed a brilliant game plan on both ends of the floor. They escaped with a gritty victory and now have some momentum heading into a game 5 in Orlando that may well be the last at Amway Arena. The Magic were more aggressive and decisive in game 4, which put the Celtics on their heels and created more easy scoring opportunities that had been scarce until now.

Jameer Nelson played better than Rajon Rondo for the first time this series and was an effective playmaker throughout. Nelson also sealed the game for the Magic in overtime by hitting consecutive 3-pointers, both of which registered a collective 9.0 on the ridiculous scale. The first shot was a rushed three-pointer from the left wing that was heavily contested and banked in, breaking the 86-86 tie that had ended regulation. After a Celtic miss, Nelson then dribbled down the right side and was blanketed by the Celtics yet still chose to launch another 3 from 27 feet away from the hoop. Swish. Nelson took the game from a dead tie to a 6-point Magic lead in less than 45 seconds and the Celtics never regained the lead. I didn't care much for the results of those two possessions last night, but I will absolutely live with those looks and the consequences for the Celtics.

Jameer Nelson may have made the lucky shots to ice the victory for Orlando last night, but their real hero was Dwight Howard, who made his best and most dominant contribution to this series on both ends of the floor. Howard finished with 32/16 and 4 blocks on an efficient 13-19 from the floor but a miserable 6-14 from the free-throw line. The stat line for Howard is impressive enough, but it doesn't begin to tell the whole story of how he affected last night's game (fortunately for you guys, I am here to fill in the details). Dwight Howard flat out controlled the paint on both ends of the floor last night largely because of his work on the glass (and also because the refs let him camp out for five seconds at a time in the key). The Celtics couldn't handle Howard on the glass (he had 5 offensive rebounds) and paid dearly for it. Instead of making him work out of the post for his shots, the Celtics let Howard grab misses in position to dunk or lay the ball in and then failed several times to wrap him up and send him to the line after an offensive rebound.

Orlando came out and played like they had nothing to lose (maybe because they didn't?) and the Celtics came out and played like they all wanted to put the Magic to sleep by themselves. That kind of basketball isn't what got the Celtics to this point, and if they continue to do this they may be in real trouble. I certainly got ahead of myself yesterday and was perhaps put in my place by the turnout of the game, but that doesn't mean I am prepared to give in to the front-running hysterics and declare that this ship is going down. No team in NBA history has ever come back form a 3-0 deficit, and it will not be happening this year. The Celtics will be more focused in game 5 and the Magic still haven't shown that they have what it takes to play consistently against this Celtic team. It's very hard to beat anyone four times in a row in this league, so don't panic and tune in for game five on Wednesday!

Goodnight, Dwight

For those of you who may not know me or my philosophy on basketball all that well, a major component is my distaste for front running players and writers alike (mostly the writers). It seems to me that everyone gets so caught up in the hype and the swings from game to game that a lot of the thoughtful analysis and much of the beauty of the game of basketball gets lost in the shuffle. Even good, insightful writers fall victim to this trap, in no small part because one's ability to make bold predictions and then spend 1,000 words saying "I told you so" is apparently how we evaluate and judge sports writers and analysts today. Unfortunately, that brand of analysis is what a lot of fans like to read about and want to hear, but I can't help the feeling that it cheapens our knowledge of the game and is hurting the narrative that we use to discuss basketball.

Whenever I think about basketball or write about the game, I try to make a conscious effort to avoid that pitfall (I am not nearly as successful as I would like to be). Anyone who knows me will tell you that I take plenty of delight in being right when others are wrong, and I like to make sure that everybody knows just how right I was. I can play that game, but it makes me feel empty and I don't think that my skills as a writer or my knowledge of the game improved as a result of that indulgence. I am constantly looking for the even keeled perspective on the game, the series or whatever, and as a result I cannot be so authoritative in my "I told you so" moments and I tend to temper all my observations and subdue the strong desire to fall back into the mode of making wild predictions and statements based on short term results or small sample sizes.

As such, my last post contained more questions than answers as the Celtics headed into game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Orlando Magic and despite their recent play I still wondered whether or not the Celtics could sustain their focus without a lapse that would give Orlando hope for the series. After Saturday's performance, it is safe to say that the Celtics answered my questions authoritatively. The Celtics did not lose focus, they did not let up the same way they did against Cleveland, and now my only question about the 2010 Boston Celtics is "what have you done with the stiffs that were wearing your uniforms for most of the regular season?"

Game 3 against Orlando was a convincing victory to say the least (even the final score of 94-71 belies just how badly Boston dominated Orlando), and what impressed me the most about this virtuoso performance was that the Celtics put forth their most consistent effort yet and set out to crush the will of the Orlando Magic. In a situation where the Celtics could have easily lapsed, they came out firing on all cylinders and determined to control the game from start to finish. Although Boston has dominated Orlando for the vast majority of this series, in both games one and two the Magic were able to capitalize on minor mental lapses from the Celtics and scrap, claw and fight their way back into the contest. There was no such let up in game 3, and by the end you could see that the Orlando players were beaten and broken and ready for summer vacation. Tonight, I fully expect the Celtics to send them packing.

It must say something about the inconsistency of this Celtics team that I still have some reservations about their focus and drive with such a commanding lead in this series, but at this point I am very confident that the Celtics will put Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic to sleep for good tonight and head back to the NBA Finals to face the Western Conference Champion. Boston is too talented, too balanced, too focused and too determined to be deterred, while the Magic appear to have checked out of this series and their season last week.

I'm still not totally sure how much comes from the Celtics' otherworldly play and how much Orlando is to blame for their own predicament, but that hardly matters at this point. What is important is that the Celtics have an opportunity to get back to the NBA Finals as a healthy unit that is firing on all cylinders at just the right time of year. I am stuck here at work until 6 PM PST, but will hopefully catch the majority of the game and be able to provide timely insight and analysis during and after game 4. The Celtics are right there and should dominate again, look out!

Keep Your Foot on the Gas

Well, the Celtics sure haven't disappointed thus far, but the big question going forward is "can the Celtics keep up the focus and intensity, or will they crap the bed?" Based on the regular season, you'd have to expect the latter, but given the Celtics' current hot streak I just don't know what to expect. My philosophy is to stay even keeled and not to overreact to the game-to-game swings that send so many media members off the deep end and generally drag down the quality of analysis and commentary to the most base level knee-jerk reactions and hyperbole imaginable. Let's see if I can avoid that pitfall for the next 700 words...

Although the Celtics collapsed in epic fashion in game 3 of the Cleveland series, I am expecting more focus and determination from Boston as the series shifts back to the Garden on Saturday. The Celtics have looked better and played better than the Magic for the vast majority of the first two games, and as many have noted they looked more locked in and focused than they have all season long. Also, they haven't blown Orlando out in either contest so hopefully the Celtics aren't suffering from the same delusions of grandeur that plagued them against Cleveland. The downside is that the Celtics will have had 3 days of everyone writing about how great they are before game 3 tips off, so there will be ample opportunities for them to get drunk on their own kool-aid.

The Celtics have been an enigma all year long, however on the other side of the ball the Magic have been just as perplexing in this series. Orlando was rusty and disengaged in game one, and understandably so after coming off relatively easy playoff series against both Charlotte and Atlanta, so everyone (including yours truly) gave them a mulligan. But after another lackluster performance in game 2 where the Magic saw only a moderate and spotty improvement in their effort level, I am beginning to wonder whether or not these guys have it in them to deal with a physical Celtics team that relies on balanced scoring and hard defense to win.

Dwight Howard improved immensely in game 2, but he was the only Magician who didn't pull a disappearing act on Tuesday. Jameer Nelson labored through 38 minutes and managed only 9 points on 4-12 shooting, Vince Carter chucked up fade-away after fade-away en route to a 5-15 stink bomb that also involved him bricking two free throws in the final minute that could have brought Orlando to within a point of the Celtics, while Rashard Lewis and Matt Barnes no-showed for the second straight game. Keep in mind that a lot of this has to do with the Celtic defense, but Orlando has played well in stretches for both games which leads me to believe that they could do something about this situation if they wanted to. For instance, Orlando was able to pretty much bludgeon the Celtics by playing Dwight Howard and Marcin Gortat at the same time, giving them a huge edge in the paint and on the glass. And despite a brain fart to end the game, J.J. Redick has played great defense on Ray Allen and been far more effective than the clearly injured Matt Barnes, yet Barnes is still in the rotation. It's not like Stan Van Gundy doesn't know this, yet he hasn't made the necessary adjustments to give his team an edge.

I suppose it's also possible that the Magic have no answers for the Celtics. boston has been playing defense about as well as anyone and have been able to knock Orlando out of their comfort zone for nearly this entire series. Big edges that the Magic were supposed to have (points in the paint, rebounds, fouls) have evaporated, while the Celtics have exposed Orlando's flaws and forced the Magic into playing the game that they want them to play. I don't know if the Celtics can keep a lid on the Orlando shooters for the rest of the series, but if they keep defending with the same effort and intensity level that they've displayed thus far they have as good a chance as anyone.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that Orlando will perform better at some point, but I am still not that worried because the dirty secret of this series is that the Celtics haven't played great yet either. Boston has done an admirable job of defending with grit and intensity and have battled Orlando to a draw in the areas where the Magic should have dominated, but they haven't played a complete offensive game yet. Thus far Kevin Garnett has struggled in both games, and while open looks haven't been as easy to come by against the Orlando defense, KG has clanked a lot of shots that normally go down. I don't believe that Orlando can match up with all of the Celtics and keep them from being at least somewhat effective on offense. It is simply too hard to cover Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen at the same time, and that's before you take into account the fact that you can see Pierce salivating every time Vince Carter tries to D him up.

I guess I am hoping for success from the Celtics on Saturday but in the spirit of this year's team and Boston sports in general I will brace for the worst. No matter how you slice it, Orlando is in trouble and really needs to shake things up to have a puncher's chance in this series. I am not sure if the Celtics are good enough and the Magic bad enough for this series to end up in a sweep, but after two consecutive stink bombs it is getting harder and harder to imagine Orlando putting up much of a fight in the rest of this series. The Celtics seem to have their number, Orlando knows this and it looks at this point like there is nothing they can do about it. We'll just have to wait and see, game 3 is on Saturday. Until then, keep rooting for the Celtics and think of some condescending chants for Dwight Howard and Vince Carter for game night.

Anticipating Adjustments

Well it certainly wasn't pretty, but I'll take a victory any way it happens in the Eastern Conference Finals against a team as formidable as the Orlando Magic. The Celtics did an absolutely fantastic job of defending Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis yesterday and despite almost collapsing in the fourth quarter came out of game one with a 92-88 victory. There's a lot of stuff to discuss and digest, but more than anything I'm wondering what if anything we can take away from this game and use to divine more information about how the rest of this playoff series will play out.

First the good: Dwight Howard was frustrated from wire to wire yesterday and the Celtics' front court did an outstanding job of making Howard work for every inch of position on the interior and sent him to the line to earn his points whenever possible. The combination ok Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace battled Howard to a standstill, forcing him out of the paint and his comfort zone without help from the other Celtics, allowing the rest of Boston's players to stay close to the bevy of perimeter shooters on the Orlando roster. The result of some spectacular interior defense was a solid defensive effort for almost the entire game, excepting the last 7 minutes of the game where Orlando just started knocking down more shots than they had been all game long.

Undoubtedly Orlando will make adjustments and play better in game 2, not only because they'll have a greater sense of urgency to win but also because they should be acclimated to the level of intensity for this series after cakewalking their way through the first two rounds. Also, I suspect that Stan Van Gundy will make adjustments on offense to help his team get more and better open shots than they were able to muster yesterday.

It's clear at this point that the Celtics are extremely well equipped to defend Dwight Howard in post up scenarios, so I doubt you'll see a whole lot of that tomorrow and throughout the rest of the series. Kendrick Perkins is especially patient and disciplined on defense and has had tremendous success in the past defending Howard's "post game," so I am fully expecting to see a lot more high screen & roll plays from the Magic as we go forward in this series. Getting Howard, Jameer Nelson and the basketball moving more is Orlando's best shot at creating open looks for themselves, and despite the fact that the Celtics defend this play very well it could be a great way for Orlando to establish a better rhythm on offense. Howard stands to benefit from more pick & roll basketball, but I actually see that play as a great way to get Rashard Lewis going, as defensive rotations to cover the screen & roll will lead to more open looks on the perimeter for Lewis as well as opportunities for him to use his quickness and create off the dribble.

The Magic will undoubtedly come back harder in game 2 and should be favored to even up the series, but the Celtics can take some encouragement from the fact that they beat Orlando despite playing a less than flawless game themselves. Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo both had below average games yesterday and should play better as the series goes on, and you have to expect that the second unit will step up and contribute more than they did yesterday, although they were hardly terrible in game 1.

The KG/Rondo match-ups are considerably less favorable in this series, but thanks to Boston's balance in the starting unit, the Celtics were able to generate buckets thanks to both Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Allen was terrific despite almost blowing the game by dribbling the ball off his own foot (as Tyler Fox said, "way to Tony Allen that one, Ray") and then not boxing out Jameer Nelson on a free-throw attempt in the closing seconds, and I am expecting more and better things from him as the series goes on. Ray has a speed and quickness advantage on every Orlando defender he is likely to see, and although Redick did a great job in the 4th quarter of chasing Ray off the 3-point line and around screens, I'm not sure the Magic can do that for 48 minutes.

The real key to this series, however could very well be Paul Pierce. After getting swallowed by LeBron James and the Cavs in the last round, Pierce put up an impressive and efficient (despite 5 turnovers) stat line yesterday. The Celtics isolated Pierce against Vince Carter, and the Truth's eyes seemed to light up at the opportunity. This is wild speculation, but I expect to see the best out of Pierce this series as long as Vince Carter is checking him. Pierce is as quick and waaaaaaaaaaay more physical than Carter, and from the looks of things he took a lot of joy in dismantling a guy who got drafted 5 slots ahead of him in 1998 and is Paul's only competition for "biggest injury faker in the NBA" (see? I'm not afraid to zing the hometown guys).

Perhaps the biggest key to take away from yesterday's game is that despite the stout Orlando defense, the Celtics are a balanced team that can get a spark from four of its starters and occasionally the bench. This series is going to be close, hotly contested and beautiful to watch if you are a basketball fan, so stay tuned!

What Really Makes Orlando Go?

It's very late so I am going to keep this one short and sweet (there's a first time for everything, right?). First I have to say congrats to the Celtics for overcoming a great team like Cleveland and defying trends and expectations to this point. I truly did not believe that Boston had the focus or desire to beat Cleveland, and I am as shocked as nearly everyone else by the manner in which Boston dominated the league's best team. I never doubted that the Celtics could rise to the occasion, they just hadn't shown any signs of life since Christmas and got worked over by the elite of the NBA this year so I really didn't think it was in the cards. Were the Celtics playing a game of Texas Hold 'em, I would have pegged their odds of beating the Cavs as equivalent to catching a 2 outer for the righteous suck-out, I just had no idea that the Cavs were apparently bluffing. Neither did anyone else.

As daunting as beating LeBron James and Cleveland was for this veteran Celtic team, I fear that the Orlando Magic may be better than the Cavs and thus the next challenge for Boston will be even more difficult. No, Orlando doesn't have anyone like Lebron James or Kobe Bryant that can absolutely light the world on fire and beat you by themself, but they do have talent and depth through the end of their bench and play beautiful basketball together. They have a coach in Stan Van Gundy who definitely won't shit the bed a la Mike Brown and gift wrap the series for the Celtics. They're also 27-3 since March 1st, and 8-0 in the playoffs thus far. Nobody has even come close to touching these guys in two whole months, and from the way they beat Atlanta in the last round (a team that owned the Boston Celtics this year, by the way) in record fashion with an average margin of victory of 25 points per game. The Magic are a buzz saw right now, and the Celtics are the lucky ones who get to see if they can withstand a vicious Orlando attack that is relentless on both ends of the floor.

So how do the Celtics pull this one off? What is the key to the series? The answer might not be where you think it is on the court. Although Dwight Howard is Orlando's best player and the focal point of the team, as I have spent a long time discussing before, he is not the crucial element of the Magic's plan of attack. Really, if you want to beat Orlando you have to do two things: don't beat yourself with turnovers or bad shots (yikes), and defend the hell out of the three-point line when the Magic have the ball. Accomplishing the former may be impossible for this Celtic team, but they can achieve the latter if they win one key match-up on the perimeter.

Though the likes of Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett loom large on the court, I believe the series will be decided by the two littlest guys on the floor for both these teams. If Rajon Rondo can contain Jameer Nelson in this series, the Celtics can and should win. If he can't and Nelson gets free, the Celtics and their fans had better get ready for several long nights and an awfully short playoff series. Jameer Nelson is not only Orlando's best and most efficient shooter, but he also uses his dribble penetration to create open looks on the perimeter for other Orlando shooters as well as scoring opportunities in the paint for Dwight Howard. The Celtics must keep Nelson on the perimeter in this series and put a hand in his face or else face the consequences. Rajon Rondo has the tools for the job, and I believe that his offense will be crucial to defending Nelson as well (if Nelson has to chase an active Rondo up and down the court, he will have less energy to shoot dagger jumpers all night long).

But what about Howard? The Celtics have a slew of defenders to take on Dwight Howard straight up, and although Howard has improved his post game this year I still believe that he is secondary to what the Magic do on offense and is not the biggest threat to the Celtics in this series. Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace have all had success defending Howard in the past, and although the young big man can now drive a little bit more effectively if he doesn't start with great position on the interior, I am still more than willing to live with whatever he gets out of post up situations. I still believe that he is ineffective if you can body him out of the paint and push him more than an arms length from the rim, shoddy footwork, below average hands and poor passing skills really hurt Howard in this area. If the Celtics are able to play Howard straight up (they should be), then I like the Celtics' chances of defending the three-point line and hampering Orlando's offensive attack a lot.

Speaking of three-point shooters, the other match up to watch in this series is Rashard Lewis against Kevin Garnett. Lewis has killed the Celtics and Garnett this year with his quickness, and he has proven to be quite challenging for Garnett to stick with after his knee injury robbed him of nearly all his lateral quickness. Though he is only marginally taller than Antawn Jamison, Lewis is a better offensive player and a tougher defender, so KG won't have nearly as easy of a time in this series as he did in Cleveland, and the Celtic attack could suffer mightily as a result.

The only area where the Celtics could really hurt the Magic is on the wing, mostly because Vince Carter has to guard somebody, and whomever that is for Boston will have a mismatch on offense. That would be all well and good under normal circumstances, however neither Ray Allen or Paul Pierce have been able to play consistently well in the postseason so I have my doubts about the Celtics in this area. Pierce won't have to work as hard on defense as he did last series (though if you sleep on guys like Carter, Matt Barnes, and Pietrus they'll kill you), so hopefully we can get more out of the captain this time around. Neither Barnes (who has a bad back, by the way) or Vince Carter are well equipped to chase Ray Allen around screens on offense, but although Ray has carried the Celtics sometimes throughout these playoffs he hasn't had it every night and the Celtics will need more out of him against such a tough defensive team.

I may not fear Howard on offense, but he makes the Magic an elite defensive team that will certainly give the Celtics fits at times. On the other side, the Celtics have been playing great defense in the postseason, however Orlando is younger, faster, stronger and just as disciplined, so the Celtics have to be considered big underdogs in this series. I will really enjoy watching these teams square off, it may be an ugly slugfest of a series but it should be good. More analysis and commentary will follow.

Competitive Firee

Well well well, I'm glad that 90% of the time I try to talk to anyone about basketball I get tuned out like so much white noise and subjected to innumerable eye rolls, because before this weekend I was telling anyone who would listen that Paul Pierce would not do well in the 3-point shooting contest this weekend. Boy was I wrong (though I was hardly the only one). Because of Pierce's methodical, slow release, I thought he would struggle mightily to keep the rhythm and tempo necessary to shoot 25 shots so effectively in just one minute. Against other competitors with short, compact strokes (Stephen Curry and Chauncey Billups), it seemed like Pierce was at a disadvantage (and we haven't touched on his foot sprain either). But to the Truth's credit, he raised his game and changed his stroke and took home the trophy despite some stiff competition from his peers.

In the final round, Pierce scored 20 of a possible 30 points (there are five balls per rack, five racks in all and the last ball in each rack is worth 2 points) to edge out young Stephen Curry for the title. While Pierce's shooting was mighty impressive to behold, what really struck me was the fact that he nailed very single one of the money-balls in the final round. If that's not an indication that a player is a fierce competitor and can raise his game when it really matters, I'm not sure what is. Like he's done so many times in the past, Paul Pierce was willing and able to make the necessary adjustments to win, showing us all once again how talented, versatile and intelligent he is as a player. Whatever the situation calls for, he can provide. It's exciting to watch the ball go in the hole a lot, but seeing Pierce change his game to get himself an edge and the win was far more impressive for me.

Hopefully, Pierce and the other Celtics will get their act together soon, they've got a tough slate of games this week, with an LA/Portland back-to-back on Thursday and Friday for good measure. Fox and I will be at the game on Friday (special nod to Tyler's mom for hooking us up with killer seats), so I should be able to provide some good analysis after the contest. Stay tuned, sports fans!

Is the Water Level Rising or Are We Sinking?

Yikes, these Celtics are out of whack lately.  Even after a win over Washington last night, the Celtics have still looked more awful than not lately.  KG is limping, Pierce hurt his foot, Rasheed Wallace is in worse shape than I am, and Ray Allen is in a deep, deep funk.  John Hollinger wrote this morning that Tony Allen has been the Celtics' most consistent bench player and meant it (he's not wrong either).  Alarm bells are ringing, loudly.

Coming from all of this are grumblings that the Celtics need to scuttle the whole ship and break up the big three because we clearly aren't winning a championship this year as is.  While I'd agree that the Celtics probably aren't going to win it all this year and probably won't even win the East, but I don't think that making a knee jerk trade in January is going to solve anything.  There's a variety of reasons not to do a deal, most of all because there isn't anyone available in the NBA that the Celtics can get that makes them so much better that they have to do a deal.  So why doesn't everyone just take a deep breath or two, take one or two steps back and let's look at this whole situation before we do anything rash.

So before we can start looking at solutions, we need to diagnose the problems that are causing the Celtics to lose games right now.  Though I haven't watched every minute of every game, from what I have seen the Celtics' have two problems that are somewhat related.  The big problem with the Celtics this year is that they aren't rebounding the ball.  The whole Celtic defense is built on contesting shots heavily (which they still do as well as anyone in the NBA) and limiting opponents to one contested shot per possession.  Opponents are pursuing the ball against the Celtics (and the Celtics appear to NOT be pursuing the ball) and getting more second shots than in years past, which creates more and BETTER looks for the opposition.  

Why are the Celtics giving up so many more offensive rebounds?  Well an unhealthy KG certainly doesn't help, but really the problem lies in the fact that the Celtic bigs have to help more this year on dribble penetration and are therefore unable to box out their men (which leaves the likes of Pierce to box out power forwards and centers) and out of position to grab defensive rebounds.  While a decent share of the blame for this belongs to Ray Allen (his defense has been noticeably worse this year on the whole), every other Celtic has a hand in this too.  Also, it doesn't help that 'Sheed is so freaking out of shape that he makes Glen Davis seem slim, yuck.  Simply put, everyone needs to try a little harder to limit second shots for the opposition and Boston will be just fine come playoff time.

While the rebounding problem is mostly defensive, it does affect the Celtics' offense as well.  First of all, transition opportunities are fewer and farther between when you're having to send everyone to the glass to secure a rebound, and it is also difficult to run when you're busy taking the ball out of your own net.  But really, the rebounding deficiency at this point is harming the Celtics most because it makes the Celtics' one achilles heel more glaring and hurtful to the team.  And yes, I'm talking about turnovers here.  The Celtics turn the ball over as much as anyone in the NBA, which has been a dirty little secret of this team for the past 3 years.  The Celtics run a complex offense and take chances that many other teams wouldn't, so some turnovers are to be expected.  These mistakes are easier to cover up when the other team doesn't score, however when they do the turnovers tend to stick out like a herpes sore on a Tryon Creek bar skank (we all know who I'm talking about, so I won't name names).  Needless to say, the turnover problem is bad, and the only solution is to cover it up with better rebounding.

Aside from the turnovers, the Celtics offensive problems are few and far between.  From the games I've watched, Boston has no trouble at all generating good shots for every member of the ball club.  The core of Pierce, Garnett and Allen are aging and declining in production, however Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins have both grown offensively and can/do pick up the slack quite well.  At this point, shots just aren't falling the way they were in October/November.  This is not a reason to blow things up.  Basketball is not about putting the ball in the net as much as you think.  What really matters in the long run is repeatedly generating good looks for your team.  If you think about basketball in a certain way, the end result of make or miss is irrelevant, the quality of the look and the decision making process of how the offense works is the crucial piece.  

For example, when Kobe Bryant stuck the game winning shot on Sunday afternoon, everyone drools over Kobe without realizing that a) Ray Allen played perfect defense and made Kobe take a low percentage shot and that more importantly b) Pau Gasol was WIDE OPEN for the entire play.  Kobe sank the shot and got the Lakers the game and made Sportscenter in the process, but in a lot of ways (except for the only one that counts, unfortunately) the Celtics won that possession by forcing the worst possible shot when it mattered most.  So even though shots aren't falling and the offense appears to be stagnant, the Celtics really just need to keep shooting and keep playing to get each other open looks at the basket.

Another example is Rasheed Wallace, who has taken much heat this year for turning into Antoine Walker and being satisfied to sit on the outside and clang threes all night long.  While I do agree that 'Sheed does rely on the 3 too much, again he just isn't hitting them now like he was earlier in the year.  I haven't seen him force to many bombs lately, most of those that look forced occur because the ball is swung to him late in the shot clock and someone HAS to shoot.  What I will say is that 'Sheed should post up more because he is still brutally effective inside, and his unwillingness to do so reflects on his lack of commitment to contact and to conditioning.  My gripes with Wallace lie more there than in his shot selection, though the two are related.

If you did want to criticize Boston's shot selection, I would look at the fact that they are a team of jump shooters and sometimes have trouble getting to the free-throw line.  And once they do get to the line, it is always an adventure for these Celtics.  The fact that our point guard shoots only 59% from the free-throw line and is one of the only Celtics who still goes into the paint is disconcerting.  The reality is that Rajon Rondo could get to the charity stripe any time he wants.  But the fact that he can't convert when he gets there has already cost the Celtics one game this year and changes the entire way teams defend Boston.  While the little guy has done more than anyone could have hoped for already, if he really is going to be THE MAN (and the Celtics need him to do so, by the way), he has to force opponents to respect him at the free-throw line and needs to at least make sure that he isn't a liability out there for the Celtics.

Then there is the Celtics' bench, which as in years past is a problem area for this team.  A general lack of depth at the wing and at point guard have hurt the Celtics this year, but also injuries across the board have affected the bench more than a lot of people realize.  Now, I'm not trying to make any excuses about injuries or whatever, because everyone gets injured and it is part of life in the NBA.  Besides, if I legitimately started complaining about injuries when I watch the Blazers (this year's most injured team, hands down.  No really, they're starting to resemble the Blazers from Breaks of the Game) I would either get struck dead by lightning or burned alive by a lynch mob, so I won't go down that road too far.  Still, injuries to KG have forced Rasheed Wallace (who provides the lion's share of Boston's bench production) into the starting rotation and a bum thumb (yes I did that just to rhyme) has kept Marquis Daniels (who plays a bigger role than the numbers indicate) from helping run the offense for the second unit.  Throw in the hand injury to Glen "Don't Call Me Big Baby" Davis and you can see why the Celtics' bench has stuggled this year.  Daniels should be back in a few weeks and if KG is ever healthy again, 'Sheed will return to the second unit as well, which could go a long way towards solving a lot of problems for Boston.

So knowing this, would a trade actually help the Celtics all that much?  Would anything get fixed if you blew up the core of this team and tried to make adjustments half way through the year?  Trade away Ray Allen and suddenly opponents don't have to worry about anyone cutting all over the floor and covering the three-point arc as tightly, which will kill space on the interior and close up all driving lanes and many of the options within the Celtics' offense.  And even if you did want to trade Ray Allen, who are the Celtics getting in return?  I can't think of any team who has a piece that the Celtics could use who would be interested in Ray Allen.  At this point he is cap relief for the future, and any deal for a semi-tantalizing piece or better would likely require the Celtics to send draft picks too, which is a good chunk of the reason that the Celtics are in the quagmire that they're in.  Throw in the fact that Ray Allen is perhaps the most likable NBA player in the game today and by all accounts is an outstanding human being.  On a team that is already dangerously close to turning me off (a hardcore fan with a thick skin for bad behavior), you need guys like him.

The only roster moves that I would go for would be of the smaller variety.  Getting a quality backup point guard or another versatile wing player would be just great, and some of the names out there are interesting.  Names get thrown into trade discussions all the time, but I think that getting Kirk Hinrich from the Bulls is a very interesting and real possibility.  He's a solid defender with enough size to defend either backcourt position, shoots the ball well and can run the offense with no problems.  He already comes off the bench behind Derrick Rose is Chicago, so we know that a) he doesn't have a huge ego and b) Chicago doesn't need him that badly.  He'd be a nice addition to the Celtics and could probably be had for the right pu-pu platter of expiring deals (think Scal, TA, J.R. Giddens and Glen Davis or Eddie House or something like that).  That's a move that makes sense, the Celtics would get better without having to make drastic changes.  

On a semi-related note, I actually met Kirk Hinrich once in Logan Airport and he seemed like a nice, approachable guy.   This was several years ago, I congratulated him on whipping Miami in the Playoffs that year and asked for an autograph on my boarding pas, which he did happily.  He made my day for sure, and maybe just maybe I did the same for him, as far as I know nobody else knew who he was (it was obvious to me, and not just because I am an NBA nut.  Firstly, he was a head taller than most everyone else going through security and second, he had a ridiculously expensive watch and carry-on bag.  And it was a flight to Chicago).  I thought about asking him who the toughest cover in the NBA was, but decided to leave him alone.  Good times.

From where I stand and how I see these Celtics of the past three years, a funk in January is nothing to panic about.  In many ways, the Celtics are reaping what they've sown by trading their young core for a title in 2008.  We knew that was the deal and frankly should be thankful that we won at all.  So many things can stop a championship run, and then the window probably still would have closed just as fast.  We got what we wanted and it was worth it.  The fact that this team has stayed extremely competitive and been in the hunt for two seasons after winning the title is just gravy.  If this group can get back to playing Celtic basketball (and they can), then everything will be just fine and this team will make a deep, deep playoff run.  If they can't, so it goes.  There just isn't anyone available out there that's worth blowing up a team this good for at the moment, so why not ride it out with this group?  For those of you out there who think this ship is taking on water and will sink sooner than later, life rafts are available and you have my blessing to abandon ship.  I'll be standing on deck, prepared to go down with this team if need be.  

Taking on Water?

Just read that Paul Pierce is out two weeks after having fluid drained from his knee.  Obviously this is not good, and it means that Pierce will miss the upcoming road trip, including Boston's Christmas day showdown in Orlando.  What the Celtics will do without him is beyond me, since they're already thin at the wing positions without Marquis Daniels.  I suppose that Tony Allen and the recently recalled Bill Walker and possibly J.R. Giddens will fill in, though my brain can't fathom a universe where those guys are able to effectively replace the stats Pierce provides on a daily basis, much less the intangibles and leadership he brings to the table.  Actually, the thought of Tony Allen getting more minutes just made me throw up in my mouth a little.

In a weird way, this news could be a bit relieving for the Celtics over the long run.  First and foremost, this injury is minor and the Celtics are focused on preventative care, hence the longer than expected absence.  Doc Rivers, Danny Ainge et al are focused on playing in May and June of 2010, so taking risks with players now and turning minor injuries into season ending ones is not something they're prepared to do (hence KG sitting last night because of a bruise).  This way, Pierce will get some rest now and can hopefully heal fully in plenty of time to reestablish a rhythm before the All-Star break.  

And aside from the Christmas Day match-up with Orlando, the road trip doesn't have too many difficult games for the Celtics.  After Orlando, the Celtics head to the west coast to face the Clippers, Warriors and (gulp) the Pheonix Suns.  The Clippers and Warriors are both very beatable without Pierce, and the Suns could always falter against a defensive team that has plenty of size inside (check for the Celtics) and a quick, tough point guard to challenge Steve Nash (double check).  So in theory all four games are winnable, with a 2-2 finish being a bit pessimistic but likely.

If you ask me, the biggest downside to this injury is the fact that I won't get to watch Pierce play this week while I'm home in Massachusetts.  Ultimately, the Celtics will be just fine.  Even if these injuries cost the Celtics a few games, it won't matter much.  This Celtics squad is so talented that home court throughout the Playoffs won't matter (Cleveland hasn't been the same at home this year and the LA crowd always sucks, so who cares?).  The Celtics just need to be healthy by March so they can establish a rhythm for the Playoffs.  

The bottom line is that you will not hear any griping about injuries out of this writer, especially since I live in Portland, where the "Frail" Blazers are down to eight healthy bodies and NO centers after Joel Przybilla went down for the season last night.  Boston can play through their injuries and will still be atop the East at season's end.  Portland, on the other hand, looked like a possible number two in the West behind the Lakers, are now going to have to focus on simply making it to the end of the year.  

UPDATE:

Pierce may not be out a full two weeks according to recent reports.  He'll still miss the road trip, but this is still great news.  Happy Holidays!

 

Locking Up the Little Guy

As Professor Hubert Farnsworth would say, "Good news, everyone!"  It seems as though the Celtics made use of the NBA's deadline extension on contract negotiations and have signed Rajon Rondo to a contract extension believed to be worth at least $55 million over the next five years.  This is exciting and surprising news for several reasons, perhaps mostly because as recently as last Monday both sides seemed to be at an impasse over the dollar amount of the deal.  It appears as though Danny Ainge and the Celtics capitulated and increased their offer to an amount that was more pleasing to Rondo and his agent, Bill Duffy.  

Frankly, I am giddy with excitement over this development, as Rondo's contract situation was my biggest concern heading into this season.  Had Boston not compromised, Rondo would have been a restricted free agent after this season, increasing the chances that he'd be playing elsewhere next year.  Fortunately for Boston, that didn't happen and it now seems that Rajon Rondo will be feeding his teammates in green and white for many years to come.

Some question the Celtics' commitment to a mercurial player who can't shoot at all, but that perspective is flawed and tends to marginalize a lot of Rondo's contributions to the Celtics.  To the naysayers, I ask only this: why does Rondo need to shoot jumpers to be valuable to the Celtics?  Rajon Rondo is on the floor to create jump shots for other players, not to knock down his own.  And Rajon Rondo is quickly becoming one of the best in the business at creating shots for his teammates without the ability to reliably knock down his own shot, so why shouldn't he be paid well for doing his job well (this isn't communist Russia, you know...)?  

Simply put Rajon Rondo is the perfect point guard for today's NBA and for the Boston Celtics.  He is incredibly long for such a tiny person and is among the quickest guards in the Association, adding intense speed to a Celtics team that would be slower than molasses without him.  Much like the way Tony Parker is the San Antonio Spurs' fast-break, Rajon Rondo is unstoppable in the open court and has the ability to change gears and control the tempo of the basketball game, a trait that is innate rather than acquired and very rare to boot.  Elite point guards like Rajon Rondo, Tony Parker and Chris Paul don't just play with the pedal to the metal all the time, instead opting to change speed at just the right moment to change the whole complexion of a game.  

Rajon Rondo's length and athleticism also help him on the defensive end, where he has always been committed to pestering his opponents into submission.  Long arms and quick feet make Rondo difficult to get around, and nearly every elite guard in this league has been shut down by Rajon at least once in the past two years.  In the past he gambled too much for steals and lacked the requisite muscle to deal with bigger point guards (Deron Williams and Chauncey Billups in particular), but this season Rondo has added some bulk and is more committed to playing a disciplined brand of team defense that has really shown improvement through the team's first four games.  Rondo's nasty streak is longer than his wingspan and his new attitude has him prepared to play stifling D every night this season (spotty play was my only knock against him in the past, no more!).

Rondo's natural gifts and the hand-checking rules of today's NBA make him the perfect point guard for professional basketball, but it's his ability to find shooters on the perimeter that makes him so valuable (at least $55 million valuable) to the Boston Celtics.  Since the championship season, Rondo has displayed a knack for finding Ray Allen in transition, but he's also improved his ability to find jump shooters in the half court offense as well.  Because of his speed and the rules regarding hand checking in the NBA, it is impossible to keep Rondo out of the paint which can do several things to opponents.  Rondo has great touch and a superb ability to finish tricky lay-ups in traffic in the paint, so if the defense does nothing he can shred an opponent all night long with high percentage looks for himself.  The only answer is to help and collapse the defense on the little guy which then leaves a bevy of Boston shooters (Ray Allen, Rasheed Wallace, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett) wide open for equally high percentage shots.  There is simply no winning play for the defense, especially this year with the addition of Rasheed Wallace.  

As a result, the Celtics are shooting 44% from downtown this year (5th best in the league) and 50% from the field overall.  Simply put, Rondo creates quality looks for all of his teammates and he's now finding them with better passes and fewer mistakes overall.  In fact, right now Rajon Rondo is second in the NBA only to Steve Nash in assists per game at 11.8, and his assist to turnover ratio is miles beyond anyone else in the top ten at a staggering 5.22:1 (Chauncey Billups is sitting at 4.00 right now, but he is averaging less than 7 assists per game).  Rondo has elite numbers and plays at an elite level, so why wouldn't he be worth that kind of money?  Can you name me a better point guard in the Eastern Conference right now?

(I'll wait)

...

...

Some of you probably want to say that Derrick Rose or Jameer Nelson may be better, but that just isn't the case.  Both of those guys are very, very good, but Rondo has dominated them both before and will continue to do so.  He is the best point guard in the Eastern Conference right now and is truthfully among the top three in the entirety of the Association, behind Chris Paul and Tony Parker/Deron Williams.  And wouldn't you know it, with this new extension he'll be paid slightly less than those guys but more than just about every other point guard out there.  It doesn't seem to me to be a reach at all, I think Rondo has earned every penny of his new deal and has the ability to eclipse every guard in the NBA except for Chris Paul.

Rajon Rondo is a champion point guard who has proven that he can distribute the basketball to a triumvirate of All-Star players and create order from chaos at lightning speed.  He's also got a mean streak that we haven't seen in the NBA and he has absolutely no fear of anyone in this league.  Why wouldn't you want to sign him?  His inability to shoot makes him who he is, and if you changed his ability to shoot you'd change how he plays the game.  The only area where I really want his touch to improve is from the free-throw line, beyond that I say let him off the leash so he can run amok just how he is and sit back and enjoy the ride (get ready for a long haul, because this ride doesn't stop until June).  

Setting Sail in 2009

So we are two games into the 2009-2010 season, and the Boston Celtics have already made plenty of noise out of the gate.  In the season opener, Boston travelled to Cleveland and beat the Cavaliers in their own building for the first time in a long time, and in the process exposing a huge weakness in Cleveland's team defense (forcing Shaq to defend the pick & roll, duh).  One night later in the Celtics' home opener, Boston absolutely drubbed the Charlotte Bobcats, declawing them en route to a 92-59 victory.  

In both victories, the Celtics showed two things.  Thing number 1: this team has a nasty streak unlike any team I've seen in a long time.  Thing number 2: this year's Celtics are versatile on offense to an absurd level.  This year Boston will make every team in the league pick their poison and then kill them with it.  Care to clog the middle and defend the paint hard?  Well that's just fine, the Celtics will gladly trot Pierce, Eddie House, Sheed, KG and Ray Allen out there to drop long range bombs on your head all day and all night.  Feel like playing tight coverage on all those shooters?  That's fine too, because then the Celtics can replace House with Rondo and cut you to ribbons in the paint.  If you want to stop the little man, you'll have to collapse that defense which leaves one of the other four guys open (oops!).  Care to go big?  The Celtics can play that game too with Kendrick Perkins and a taller, tougher line-up.  

The bottom line is that the Celtics are stacked at every position this year, and are equipped to play and beat almost any style of basketball.  This is rare indeed, and it bodes well for the Celtics this year.  When a team is so versatile that they can play and combat every style, they become that much tougher to beat on a nightly basis and within the context of a seven game series.  Simply put, Boston is poised to dominate this season and has the potential to barn-storm their way to an 18th NBA title.

Now, of course, the caveat.  The Celtics need to stay healthy for any of this to happen.  With any NBA team, that's one hell of an if, but with these aging Celtics, it is a dark specter that will loom over this entire year.  Hopefully, the additions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels can stem the tide a bit by providing some much needed rest for the Celtic veterans, and hopefully both Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins will be able to step up and carry a bit more of the load this year to disperse the stress from the rest of Boston's starters.  If those things can happen, then the Celtics should be in great shape to make another championship run come May.  If not, then it seems as though I'm going to have to try not to vomit while the Lakers repeat and we're subjected to another tidal wave of "Kobe is the greatest player" stories (yuck).   

Tonight, Boston faces Chicago at home, which should actually be a good test for the Celtics.  Thus far they've beaten two slower paced teams with ease, but this Bulls team is young, athletic and largely the same crew that gave Boston problems last Spring in round one.  If these Celtics, who are not, by the way, the same group that struggled last spring against the youthful Bulls, can handle Chicago tonight, I will feel a lot better about our chances against any and all comers.  If the celtics lose at home, then we have some thinking and soul searching to do.  Just so y'all know, I plan on drinking heavily, which is to say I'm  betting on Boston tonight.

Happy Halloween!

Marquis Signing?

Though I was initially sour on Boston signing Marquis Daniels to fill another roster spot at the swing position, a bit of research has the tides of my opinion changing.  In my mind, the best approach is to wait and see.  The only thing I'm questioning for the Celtics is the number of guaranteed contracts they have on the roster at the moment which could hurt their flexibility as the season goes on.  On the other hand, the price Ainge and the Celtics are paying for him is fair, and my ulcers will hopefully be able to recover because he'll be taking most of Tony Allen's minutes.

So who is Marquis Daniels?  He's a strong 6'6" wing who does all the little things that can help a good basketball team be better.  He can't shoot much better than Tony Allen, but he shoots a lot more jumpers (ugh) anyway.  He's a slasher without a conscience, willing to crash into the lane head-on every time even though the defense knows what he's doing.  He deflects balls on defense, and he can bring the ball up the floor in stints.  He can facilitate for others and makes plays for his team on both ends.  He was very successful in his rookie season playing point guard for Don Nelson in 2004.  He does all the little things that make coaches smile.  And he can give Paul Pierce a rest when the captain needs it.  

In Indiana he had to do so much more and his team struggled, and thus he comes off as a questionable player.  But the Celtics won't ask him to do much.  The floor should be spaced enough for him and he's plenty talented enough to find a cutting Eddie House or kick the ball to 'Sheed in the post.  Call me cautiously optimistic, but it's also true that Doc Rivers was interested in him when he was with the Orlando Magic in 2003 when Daniels was in the draft.  He gets positive reviews from the media (the media that actually knows, not the media that talks the loudest) and Danny Ainge has done a fine job keeping the ship on course thus far, so the least we can all do is reserve judgement until the season begins.

Also, it's great to see that Leon Powe has landed with another contender, signing with the Cleveland Cavaliers and interestingly enough, reuniting him with his former AAU teammate, LeBron James.  Powe will miss more than half of this season because he killed himself playing for the Celtics this past year and is by far the most likable player in the NBA.  If I ever get a Cleveland Jersey, it will be his.      

Does it Matter if a Swingman Creaks?

News is in that Milwaukee has waived Bruce Bowen.  How is this news of a declining role player who once shot a better percentage on threes for a season than he did on free throws worthy of my first post in a couple of weeks?  Can I really be excited about a guy who has clearly lost a step?  Yes, because simply put Bruce Bowen can fit a need for the Celtics and he won't be expensive (also, I don't want to read about or think about baseball right now for obvious reasons, so...).  Boston is short a swingman who can come off the bench, hit a long shot or two and play defense within a system, which is exactly what Bruce Bowen is built to do.  All we have to do now is keep him from going back to San Antonio for one more tour...

But who is this guy, anyhow?  He's a multiple NBA champion (3 rings with the Spurs in 2003, 2005 and 2007), an eight time selection for All NBA Defense (First and Second team) and he's clearly got no problem elbowing Sasha Vujacic in the chops, what's the catch?  He's 38 and clearly lost a step this year, which is a red flag to say the least.  But if you think about what Boston needs him for, he might just be the guy that comes in really handy somewhere down the road next season.

Bowen can still come off the bench for 15 minutes a night and provide quality individual and team defense as well as some three point shooting to a Celtics second unit that has a big, gaping hole at the swing position.  He doesn't have to guard Kobe for 30 minutes any more, nor would he need to shut down any of the NBA's elite players in this capacity with Boston.  But he could be great in practices and in the locker room, and in a team oriented system like Boston's where he'll never be expected to do any more than he can do, I think he can help this team a lot.  

The stars seem aligned to me.  He's a tough guy that a lot of players don't care for (like Sheed, KG, Rondo, Pierce and most of the other Celtics) and that's just fine with him.  He plays killer defense and communicates well with teammates and has a heady feel for that side of the floor (check and check).  And he's thrived for much of his career by feeding off of a speed demon point guard with no outside game who penetrates and kicks to shooters on the perimeter (sound like Rajon Rondo to you?).  And he'd be joining a team with serious title hopes where he could be a contributing member in an easier conference with less Kobe.  Also, number 12 is still available in Boston (though they may still have to wash some of that Ricky Davis funk off of the jersey).  Seems to me like a match made in heaven.

My answer is no.  For this Celtics team, it doesn't matter if Bowen is a little creaky and a little slow.  The Celtics aren't a speed team, they're an execution based team.  Bowen has the skill set and the mental make-up to be a contributor, so I say break out the WD-40 and see if he's got enough in the tank to help Boston get over the top this coming season.  I'm just fantasizing here, we'll see where Bowen lands.  San Antonio is probably the smart money bet, but I wouldn't sleep on Boston bringing Bruce Bowen into the fold.  I'll keep an eye on it, as should you.  Stay cool out there.

A Long Time Coming: Sheed Sets Sail With the Green & White

Admittedly, this is long overdue.  A truly dedicated journalist would have been on these events like flies on you-know-what, but honestly I've had to put a lot more time and energy into work that pays the bills, so basketball writing has unfortunately fallen to the back burner.  Nonetheless, I have been paying attention to current events and am, needless to say, quite pleased with the way this offseason is shaping up.

In case you've had your head buried in the sand since the Lakers won the title and the Minnesota Timberwolves drafted a battalion of point guards, the Celtics have in this humble loud-mouth's opinion been among this offseason's biggest winners.  Yes, Cleveland got Shaq for pennies on the dollar, and yes, the Spurs plucked Richard Jefferson from Purgatory a.k.a Milwaukee (to say nothing of the Lakers' snaring of Ron Artest), but the Celtics made a huge splash not long ago by inking none other than Rasheed Wallace to a three-year deal at the mid-level exception.  The hugeness of this cannot be overstated (though I'll surely try).  

Wallace gives the Celtics everything they were lacking last year and then some.  He adds length and toughness to a front line that is desperately thin in both of those categories as well as a truly unique skill set and feel for the game that is in many ways unparalleled throughout the Association.  He is a player with virtually no holes in his game, one who is battle tested and dedicated to playing the game the right way.  His only hurdles have been those of his own making, and amongst a group of kindred spirits the stars seem poised to align for what could prove to be one of the greatest Celtic teams of all time.

To speculate that the addition of a player as combustible as Wallace could elevate these Celtics to the likes of the Birds, Russells, McHales, Cousys and Havliceks without seeing them play together might seem far fetched to casual observers, Sheed's immensely dynamic skill set is often obscured by his emotional outbursts and fiery, blunt personality.  Though it would probably be prudent to do so, I am prepared to state without qualifiers that by bringing Rasheed Wallace into the fold they have by far the best chance to win the East as well as the NBA Finals next season.  I'm so excited by the possibilities of this that I don't even care if I'm forced to eat a turd sandwich next spring.  Sheed is that good.

... 

(resisting)

...

Fine, How good is he?

Glad you asked.  Sheed represents the complete package on both ends of the floor, and at a long 6'11" he creates mismatches with both his size and his skill set.  On offense, Wallace is multifaceted and deadly in a system that preaches sharing and ball movement and should fit in nicely with players like Kevin Garnett, paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo.  He can post up nearly anyone and score with a variety of moves (using either hand, of course)  or hit a surgically accurate turnaround jumper that's nearly impossible to contest.  He can also extend the defense well beyond the three-point line (once again, either hand), which will allow the Celtics to space the floor for stretches of the game and create open looks off of either Rondo/Pierce dribble penetration or a Garnett post up.  Any shot from anywhere on the floor, though as some folks who are wiser than myself pointed out, he doesn't take a lot of long two-pointers, which speaks to his awareness and feel for the court and the game.  Add to that the fact that he's an accomplished passer from the perimeter and the post and a player who sets hard, reliable, well-timed screens and you have a nightmare match up for even the most savvy defensive teams.  

Not enough for you?  He's also a gritty-tough defender who's versatile enough to defend three positions either in the post or on the perimeter.  Once again, his length, skill set and feel for the game make Wallace an excellent defender, and it is here that his toughness and competitive fire combined with the Celtics system can possibly bear their greatest fruit.  Most importantly, Wallace is committed to the defensive end of the floor and understands that championship basketball is built on a foundation of defense.  

By adding Sheed, the Celtics now also have two of a very select group of interior players who have routinely frustrated Dwight Howard, the new Beast of the East (Shaq and a healthy Emeka Okafor are the only others who are on the list).  This will likely prove to be huge against Orlando throughout next year and likely into the playoffs.  Now Kendrick Perkins can be aggressive on defense and contest shots with some zeal knowing that Wallace is there to pick him up if he needs it (not to mention the fact that Sheed presents a match-up problem for Howard on defense and at the very least will force him away from the basket).  Sheed brings the rare ability to bang with the toughest of opponents as well as the quickness and athletic ability to contain even the most skilled post players (and he rebounds the hell out of the ball, too).  

Last but not least, Wallace is a champion who values winning more than his ego and is coming into an environment with like-minded peers who are just as dedicated as he is to playing the game the right way.  Wallace was the glue that pushed Detroit to glory in 2004 and brought his team millimeters from a repeat the next year.  Though his temperament may be a turn-off to some organizations, his swagger fits perfectly with the Celtics and will make a tough team even tougher.  

Rasheed Wallace can make every Celtic better, whether he starts or not.  Though his personality is distinctly different than that of James Posey, Wallace embodies many of the same vital traits that Posey brought to the championship team.  He's a guy you want in your foxhole, and the value of that quality cannot be underestimated.  An occasional lapse aside, Wallace is one of the most dedicated students of the game, able to run every play in the book from all five positions and direct traffic with the best of them.  He is the perfect do-it-all player who can elevate even the most talented teams to new heights.

You can't see, but I'm actually salivating right now at the endless possibilities the Celtics will have next year.  Now the Celtics can go small without actually going small, by playing Wallace, Garnett, Pierce, Allen and Rondo.  Four skilled, knock down shooters and a whirling dervish of a point guard to distribute the ball on offense with the length of two seven-footers (I don't buy that 6'11" crap for either Garnett or Wallace).  Or they can go big and tough, and use Wallace to bolster an already stout starting front-court of Pierce, Garnett and Kendrick Perkins.  With Rasheed Wallace in the locker room, any flaws that precipitated the downfall of the Celtics this season are gone for next season.  I fully expect them to be a force to be reckoned with next season.  If they can stay healthy and possible retain Big Baby Davis (or add another wing reserve), the Celtics could flirt with seventy wins.  I am deadly serious about that.

Eugoly

First and foremost, I'd like to hold a moment of silence for the 2008-09 Boston Celtics...

This is hard for me to say, but the better team won this series.  That the series went to seven games is remarkable, and that the Celtics played so hard throughout despite being ravaged by injuries makes their intense and gritty playoff run all the more impressive.  News broke today that Kendrick Perkins, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce were all playing hurt, and I am not surprised one bit.  As if the season ending injuries to Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe weren't enough, apparently the universe saw fit to afflict three more of Boston's starters with debilitating injuries as well.  In case you weren't counting, that's three out of three of the Celtics New Big Three injured.  And this team took Orlando to seven games.  The accolades will likely never materialize for this feat, but in my mind, the Celtics deserve an equal amount of respect and admiration for playing through tough times and refusing to roll over in the face of superior competition.

Lesser teams would have crumbled months ago, but the Celtics stayed strong and proud and competed with the class of the NBA despite being short one gigantic and vital piece of the puzzle.  Though it has been beaten to death, the significance of Kevin Garnett's injury this season cannot be understated.   He brought so much more than emotion, intensity and leadership to the table for the Celtics (though these attributes are vital, no doubt), and his presence was missed on both ends of the court.  We must all pray that he is capable of healing and isn't at the beginning of the end of his playing career.  

The silver lining is that the Celtics will avoid the inevitable shaming by Cleveland and has another month to rest that they didn't get last year.  With any luck, the Celtics can reload and come back next year healthy and revitalized.  The will to win was there all along, and now they can be motivated by the chase to catch whomever is declared King of the Mountain this year.  The core will still be the same, and although some minor pieces may not return (Baby Davis is a free agent) the Celtics may find themselves in a position to get better next year rather than have to attempt to do the same job with less tools like they had to this season.

So although the Celtics have failed to repeat as champions, and although they lost before the Conference Finals on their home floor, I will remember these Celtics well (even Stephon Marbury).  I will remember them for their 27-2 start to the season, Paul Pierce's early season daggers, Rajon Rondo's near triple double average in the postseason and Ray Allen's 51 against the Bulls and I will smile as I raise a glass for them.  It was one hell of a ride this year and I cherished every occasion that I was fortunate enough to watch my hometown team take the floor.  Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to go drink myself stupid and watch my DVD of game six of last year's Finals over and over and over again. 

Running Commentary

Before we get to the looming game seven tomorrow, I am compelled to point out that although Dwight Howard led the Magic to a victory in game six (he got 16 shots), his post play and touches were not what carried the day for Orlando.  If I had to point to one reason, it would probably be the "10" under offensive rebounds in Howard's stat line from game six.  Put simply, Dwight dominated the boards on both ends and generated the vast majority of his offense from second shot opportunities off of missed shots from his fellow Magicians.  It's what he does best, and when he dedicates himself to it the Magic are very tough to beat.  To the man's credit he admitted a mistake and focused his game in the right areas and gave an inspired effort for more than 40 minutes.  Add 19 Celtic turnovers to the mix and a seriously inspired defensive effort that committed to taking the ball away from Paul Pierce nearly every time he touched it, and you get a game seven tomorrow in Boston.  

This is a post under construction, and I'll try to add some more nuggets of pseudo-wisdom throughout the day at the Boathouse tomorrow.  If you can, watch the game.  Game sevens in the NBA are poetry in motion and the height of the sport.

By All Means, Heed Mr. Howard

Dwight Howard is demanding the ball more after a frustrating loss for the Orlando Magic in game five of their series against the Celtics, and I couldn't be happier.  Not only are Howard's comments creating panic and tension for Orlando fans and the Magic as an organization, but his demands are playing right into the Celtics' hands.  While everyone else around the country is debating whether or not the coaches or the players are more to blame for ignoring Howard down the stretch on Tuesday, only a selected few (John Hollinger, Bob Ryan, Basketbawful's Matt McHale and myself) have hit the nail on the head and highlighted the fact that despite Howard's broad shoulders occupying the middle of the floor, most of Orlando's offensive success this year has come from shooting three-pointers, not from isolating Dwight Howard in the low post and allowing him to make a play.

Sure, Dwight Howard is a beast down low and ranks as one of the best centers in the game, but his dominance comes from his physicality, athleticism and rebounding ability, not because of his ability to score in the post.  In basketball, there's a difference between scoring close to the basket and scoring out of the post.  Though both events usually occur in the same general area on the floor, they are not the same.  To score in the low post requires strength, athleticism and physicality to be sure, however it also requires several things that Dwight Howard sorely lacks: soft hands, good footwork and a light touch with both hands around the rim.  

Soft hands are necessary not just for converting baby hooks, floaters, turn around jumpers and bank shots, but for dribbling the basketball in traffic, catching an entry pass and passing out of a double team as well.  Similarly, good footwork is an absolute must for successful low post offense, as the offensive player must efficiently and effectively use their feet to win a position battle and get to their spots on the floor from more than just a few feet away.  Lastly, a light shooting touch with both hands is necessary for elite post play, as the league's best defenders can force an opponent to go to their off hand in the post as an effective means for getting a stop.

Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, Pau Gasol and Al Jefferson can do all of these things, Dwight Howard cannot.  First of all, nothing about Dwight Howard can be described as "soft," especially not his shooting touch (watch him try and make a bank shot from more than three feet and you'll see what I mean).  In the same vein, Howard has no left hand, which makes it too easy for the Celtic big men to guard him, since they know in advance which way he's going when he shoots.  Lastly and perhaps most importantly, his footwork is atrocious and as of yet unpolished, making it almost impossible for him to get to his spots on the floor (i.e. the rim) against a disciplined and physical defense.  It's not just that Howard lacks the necessary fundamentals to perform all of the spins, fakes and other scoring moves that post wizards like Kevin McHale routinely pulled out to school defenders, he cannot use his steps efficiently and effectively to force defenders out of position and get him to his spots as fast as possible.

For most of the NBA season (and for his entire life prior to his NBA career), Howard can simply outmuscle his defender and get to the front of the rim for a quick dunk on an entry pass.  Against two very tough and very strong defenders in Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis, this is not so easy for Howard to do.  When he is consistently catching the ball outside of the paint or more than five feet from the rim (as has been happening all series long), Howard becomes ineffective on offense because of these holes in his game.  Against lesser opponents who lack the same caliber of personnel to match Howard's strengths, we don't notice and are content to ooh and ahh every time he emphatically slams the ball home on some poor sap's head, but against an elite opponent like the Celtics, his scoring average dips by 25% and he lights the match that will eventually burn the house down by not realizing what he actually needs to do to help his team win. 

What is that, by the way?  Aside from instantly learning flawless fundamental footwork and mastering his left hand in one or two nights, Howard could shut his freaking mouth and do what he does best: defend, rebound and score off of second chance opportunities.  In the games that Orlando has won in this series, Howard has been active on defense and grabbed a ton of rebounds (something that didn't happen in game five, where the Celtics got every loose ball and created key second shots that ultimately won the game).  In the Orlando wins in this series, he's averaging ten shots a game, which is exactly how many he got in game five.  In fact, as John Hollinger astutely pointed out the other day, the Magic play nearly as well or better when Howard gets ten shots or fewer than they do when he shoots a lot more.  Hmmmmm, maybe instead of blaming his coach Dwight should look at a stat sheet and realize that his touches per game have almost no correlation to the Magic's winning percentage.

On second thought, I hope he doesn't do that, because then Howard might realize that Orlando's true key to success lies not with him but with Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu behind the three-point line.  As those two players go, so go the Magic.  If they are hitting shots, then Howard suddenly finds himself open a lot more for those easy dunks that he lives on.  If they are being well defended or don't have the ball as often because some giant oaf in the middle is selfishly demanding the ball, then you get results like Tuesday's soul crushing loss.  Perhaps once Dwight learns a few post moves and proves to be a dominant scorer on the block, I'll take what he has to say seriously.  Until then, he's just a better version of Tyson Chandler who dunks with a superman cape.