As daunting as beating LeBron James and Cleveland was for this veteran Celtic team, I fear that the Orlando Magic may be better than the Cavs and thus the next challenge for Boston will be even more difficult. No, Orlando doesn't have anyone like Lebron James or Kobe Bryant that can absolutely light the world on fire and beat you by themself, but they do have talent and depth through the end of their bench and play beautiful basketball together. They have a coach in Stan Van Gundy who definitely won't shit the bed a la Mike Brown and gift wrap the series for the Celtics. They're also 27-3 since March 1st, and 8-0 in the playoffs thus far. Nobody has even come close to touching these guys in two whole months, and from the way they beat Atlanta in the last round (a team that owned the Boston Celtics this year, by the way) in record fashion with an average margin of victory of 25 points per game. The Magic are a buzz saw right now, and the Celtics are the lucky ones who get to see if they can withstand a vicious Orlando attack that is relentless on both ends of the floor.
So how do the Celtics pull this one off? What is the key to the series? The answer might not be where you think it is on the court. Although Dwight Howard is Orlando's best player and the focal point of the team, as I have spent a long time discussing before, he is not the crucial element of the Magic's plan of attack. Really, if you want to beat Orlando you have to do two things: don't beat yourself with turnovers or bad shots (yikes), and defend the hell out of the three-point line when the Magic have the ball. Accomplishing the former may be impossible for this Celtic team, but they can achieve the latter if they win one key match-up on the perimeter.
Though the likes of Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett loom large on the court, I believe the series will be decided by the two littlest guys on the floor for both these teams. If Rajon Rondo can contain Jameer Nelson in this series, the Celtics can and should win. If he can't and Nelson gets free, the Celtics and their fans had better get ready for several long nights and an awfully short playoff series. Jameer Nelson is not only Orlando's best and most efficient shooter, but he also uses his dribble penetration to create open looks on the perimeter for other Orlando shooters as well as scoring opportunities in the paint for Dwight Howard. The Celtics must keep Nelson on the perimeter in this series and put a hand in his face or else face the consequences. Rajon Rondo has the tools for the job, and I believe that his offense will be crucial to defending Nelson as well (if Nelson has to chase an active Rondo up and down the court, he will have less energy to shoot dagger jumpers all night long).
But what about Howard? The Celtics have a slew of defenders to take on Dwight Howard straight up, and although Howard has improved his post game this year I still believe that he is secondary to what the Magic do on offense and is not the biggest threat to the Celtics in this series. Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace have all had success defending Howard in the past, and although the young big man can now drive a little bit more effectively if he doesn't start with great position on the interior, I am still more than willing to live with whatever he gets out of post up situations. I still believe that he is ineffective if you can body him out of the paint and push him more than an arms length from the rim, shoddy footwork, below average hands and poor passing skills really hurt Howard in this area. If the Celtics are able to play Howard straight up (they should be), then I like the Celtics' chances of defending the three-point line and hampering Orlando's offensive attack a lot.
Speaking of three-point shooters, the other match up to watch in this series is Rashard Lewis against Kevin Garnett. Lewis has killed the Celtics and Garnett this year with his quickness, and he has proven to be quite challenging for Garnett to stick with after his knee injury robbed him of nearly all his lateral quickness. Though he is only marginally taller than Antawn Jamison, Lewis is a better offensive player and a tougher defender, so KG won't have nearly as easy of a time in this series as he did in Cleveland, and the Celtic attack could suffer mightily as a result.
The only area where the Celtics could really hurt the Magic is on the wing, mostly because Vince Carter has to guard somebody, and whomever that is for Boston will have a mismatch on offense. That would be all well and good under normal circumstances, however neither Ray Allen or Paul Pierce have been able to play consistently well in the postseason so I have my doubts about the Celtics in this area. Pierce won't have to work as hard on defense as he did last series (though if you sleep on guys like Carter, Matt Barnes, and Pietrus they'll kill you), so hopefully we can get more out of the captain this time around. Neither Barnes (who has a bad back, by the way) or Vince Carter are well equipped to chase Ray Allen around screens on offense, but although Ray has carried the Celtics sometimes throughout these playoffs he hasn't had it every night and the Celtics will need more out of him against such a tough defensive team.
I may not fear Howard on offense, but he makes the Magic an elite defensive team that will certainly give the Celtics fits at times. On the other side, the Celtics have been playing great defense in the postseason, however Orlando is younger, faster, stronger and just as disciplined, so the Celtics have to be considered big underdogs in this series. I will really enjoy watching these teams square off, it may be an ugly slugfest of a series but it should be good. More analysis and commentary will follow.
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