Anticipating Adjustments

Well it certainly wasn't pretty, but I'll take a victory any way it happens in the Eastern Conference Finals against a team as formidable as the Orlando Magic. The Celtics did an absolutely fantastic job of defending Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis yesterday and despite almost collapsing in the fourth quarter came out of game one with a 92-88 victory. There's a lot of stuff to discuss and digest, but more than anything I'm wondering what if anything we can take away from this game and use to divine more information about how the rest of this playoff series will play out.

First the good: Dwight Howard was frustrated from wire to wire yesterday and the Celtics' front court did an outstanding job of making Howard work for every inch of position on the interior and sent him to the line to earn his points whenever possible. The combination ok Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace battled Howard to a standstill, forcing him out of the paint and his comfort zone without help from the other Celtics, allowing the rest of Boston's players to stay close to the bevy of perimeter shooters on the Orlando roster. The result of some spectacular interior defense was a solid defensive effort for almost the entire game, excepting the last 7 minutes of the game where Orlando just started knocking down more shots than they had been all game long.

Undoubtedly Orlando will make adjustments and play better in game 2, not only because they'll have a greater sense of urgency to win but also because they should be acclimated to the level of intensity for this series after cakewalking their way through the first two rounds. Also, I suspect that Stan Van Gundy will make adjustments on offense to help his team get more and better open shots than they were able to muster yesterday.

It's clear at this point that the Celtics are extremely well equipped to defend Dwight Howard in post up scenarios, so I doubt you'll see a whole lot of that tomorrow and throughout the rest of the series. Kendrick Perkins is especially patient and disciplined on defense and has had tremendous success in the past defending Howard's "post game," so I am fully expecting to see a lot more high screen & roll plays from the Magic as we go forward in this series. Getting Howard, Jameer Nelson and the basketball moving more is Orlando's best shot at creating open looks for themselves, and despite the fact that the Celtics defend this play very well it could be a great way for Orlando to establish a better rhythm on offense. Howard stands to benefit from more pick & roll basketball, but I actually see that play as a great way to get Rashard Lewis going, as defensive rotations to cover the screen & roll will lead to more open looks on the perimeter for Lewis as well as opportunities for him to use his quickness and create off the dribble.

The Magic will undoubtedly come back harder in game 2 and should be favored to even up the series, but the Celtics can take some encouragement from the fact that they beat Orlando despite playing a less than flawless game themselves. Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo both had below average games yesterday and should play better as the series goes on, and you have to expect that the second unit will step up and contribute more than they did yesterday, although they were hardly terrible in game 1.

The KG/Rondo match-ups are considerably less favorable in this series, but thanks to Boston's balance in the starting unit, the Celtics were able to generate buckets thanks to both Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Allen was terrific despite almost blowing the game by dribbling the ball off his own foot (as Tyler Fox said, "way to Tony Allen that one, Ray") and then not boxing out Jameer Nelson on a free-throw attempt in the closing seconds, and I am expecting more and better things from him as the series goes on. Ray has a speed and quickness advantage on every Orlando defender he is likely to see, and although Redick did a great job in the 4th quarter of chasing Ray off the 3-point line and around screens, I'm not sure the Magic can do that for 48 minutes.

The real key to this series, however could very well be Paul Pierce. After getting swallowed by LeBron James and the Cavs in the last round, Pierce put up an impressive and efficient (despite 5 turnovers) stat line yesterday. The Celtics isolated Pierce against Vince Carter, and the Truth's eyes seemed to light up at the opportunity. This is wild speculation, but I expect to see the best out of Pierce this series as long as Vince Carter is checking him. Pierce is as quick and waaaaaaaaaaay more physical than Carter, and from the looks of things he took a lot of joy in dismantling a guy who got drafted 5 slots ahead of him in 1998 and is Paul's only competition for "biggest injury faker in the NBA" (see? I'm not afraid to zing the hometown guys).

Perhaps the biggest key to take away from yesterday's game is that despite the stout Orlando defense, the Celtics are a balanced team that can get a spark from four of its starters and occasionally the bench. This series is going to be close, hotly contested and beautiful to watch if you are a basketball fan, so stay tuned!

Counting Chickens

I'll wait to weigh in on Marbury until he actually signs on the dotted line, which should give me enough time to come up with some thorough analysis of the move.  Until then, you'll have to live off a little Mikki Moore analysis and some plugging of a few other sites out there that have some good analysis of Rajon Rondo's recent hot streak. 

 I feel I should also clarify that my last post wasn't putting down Rondo or trying to undercut the sheer awesomeness of his game, my intention was to simply ask the basketball watching public "what'd you expect?"  Looking back, perhaps that wasn't articulated well enough.  Rondo is amazing and vital to the Celtics' success, my perspective was that his torturing of Steve Nash was unsurprising because I've seen him play at such a high level for more than a season, though it is sometimes hard to tell because of the presence of his three All-Star teammates.  But I digress, now on to a quick quip about Mikki Moore.

First, I assume that most of you will need to know who exactly this Moore fellow is and why he matters at all to the Celtics' hope of repeating as NBA champions this year.  The short answer is that he's a wiry seven-footer who can hopefully provide a bit of floor spacing (with a serviable mid-range jumper) and the length the Celtics' second unit has been sorely lacking all season.  Yes, his averages of three points and three rebounds a game are unimpressive, and yes, he was playing for the NBA's worst team, the Sacramento Kings, but I swear to you that he has value and could potentially be a solid contributor for the Celtics down the stretch.  

Two years ago, Mikki Moore lead the NBA in field goal percentage as a member of the New jersey Nets.  As a compliment to New Jersey's core of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, Moore shot nearly 61% from the floor and averaged a career high 9.8 points per game.  Moore was able to hit open shots and make opposing defenses pay for focusing too much on his All-Star teammates, working as a small yet vital part of their system as a team.  Moore played his part very well that year, doing all of the little things you love to see out of your role players and helping New Jersey to reach the playoffs that year.

In the playoffs that year, Moore increased his scoring and rebounding averages by two points each while still shooting an impressive 56% from the floor in twelve games.  Though they lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round (the Cavs went on to win the East and get spanked by the Spurs in the Finals), Moore had finished by far his best season as a complimentary piece to a core of veteran players.  

Catch my drift yet?  In case you're really slow I'll go ahead and say it: Moore had his best season as a role player on the floor with All-Star teammates, which would be the situation he's about to enter in Boston.  I think that Mikki Moore could actually fit in quite well with the Celtics and really help them in their push to get back to the NBA Finals.  He's long enough to guard centers and quick enough on his feet to rotate within the Celtics' defense.  he plays with passion and intensity and doesn't have an aversion to doing the little things that don't necessarily show up on stat sheets.  Add to that his offensive ability to hit open shots when he gets them and help his teammates, and you can start to see why this acquisition could prove to be very significant for the Boston Celtics.  

Though I wonder about Moore's rebounding, toughness and slight frame (he's listed at 7' 225 lbs, but I doubt he even weighs that much), I feel as though he'll fit in well with Leon Powe and Big Baby Davis and can compliment them nicely in the front-court.  It's true that I would have preferred Joe Smith to be our pick up rather than Mikki Moore, but there was no guarantee that Smith would be available in time.  So it goes.  

If you haven't already, hit up this lengthy but insightful piece on Rajon Rondo.  It's a topic I touched on a while ago about Rondo's development and his jump shot.  I came to the same conclusion that they did, which is that Rondo just has to be himself and keep playing his game, rather than working to become a mid-range shooter.  I don't think it would be bad if his jumper were more reliable, but it's my opinion that Rondo has to do what he does now in order for the Celtics to be successful, and forcing change would be bad.  I ended up concluding that improved free-throw shooting would ultimately be much more important for Rondo than a mid-range game, as he's most dangerous when attacking the basket and being a better free-throw shooter would make him all the more dangerous.