Know Your Enemy

Oh yes, it's officially on! The Lakers and the Celtics are just two days away from tipping off what promises to be a hard fought, close series to decide the NBA championship, and in the spirit of the Finals I thought it might be nice to get to know the Lakers a little bit so we can all appropriately hate them once game one of the Finals tips off on Thursday evening. Before we get too far into dissecting their roster, let's try and remember that this is not 2008, even though many of the faces on the court are the same. Both teams are different than they were two years ago, so I'm going to try and avoid drawing from that series to predict what will happen this time around. With that being said, let's get right to it.

The Los Angeles Lakers have perhaps one of the deepest and most talented teams in all of basketball and along with the Boston Celtics are one of the most balanced, dangerous teams in the NBA. Their roster features plenty of guys who can kill you on any given night, and they play a brand of basketball that maximizes their talents and presents opponents with match-up nightmares all over the floor. While they are still a finesse team that likes to outscore their opponents rather than relying on stifling defense for victories, these Lakers are not the same cream puffs that the Celtics eviscerated in June of 2008, especially when it comes to playing the Celtics.

Like most of Phil Jackson's teams that run the triangle offense, the Lakers do not feature a traditional distributor/dribble penetrator type of point guard. Instead, the Lakers have the time tested Derek Fisher, a left handed guard who has made a career of spotting up on the perimeter and hitting big shots in high pressure situations. Fisher punishes defenses for over committing to Kobe Bryant and always seems to hit one or two momentum changing shots per series. At this point in his career, Fisher is a defensive liability, especially when it comes to defending the pick & roll, which favors Boston immensely due to the emergence of Rajon Rondo as the Celtics' best player. The Celtics' coaching staff would be salivating at that match-up if they were likely to see it much in the Finals, but the truth is that Kobe Bryant (more on him soon) is going to spend the most time guarding Rondo, but fear not because Fisher will still have to try and guard somebody.

Next to Derek Fisher in the backcourt, the Lakers feature some guy named Kobe Bryant who is supposedly one of the greatest players of this era. If you look at the numbers for this postseason, Kobe has been playing out of his freaking mind and has performed well above even his own lofty standards. Kobe has gone for more than 30 points in 10 of his last 11 playoff games with far greater efficiency than normal and has also been stuffing the stat sheet with around 8 rebounds and 8 assists per game as well. Some extra rest before the playoffs seems to have revitalized him, and the challenge of beating a boston team that got the best of him two years ago is more than enough motivation for Bryant to stay extra focused during these NBA Finals. This is trouble for the Celtics, but it may not be as bad as it initially seems.

Yes, Kobe has been on fire from the field and is playing with incredible efficiency, however if you watched the Phoenix series you know that his shot selection is still questionable at best. Kobe unleashed a barrage of contested two point jumpers against Phoenix and just happened to make an astounding number of them. It happens. The shots he took are still, by and large, terrible for his team over the long run. Although Kobe makes more of those shots than anyone else in the league, he is selling himself short by settling for those looks, and if he doesn't hit at such an astonishing rate during the Finals the Lakers could be in deep trouble. In 2008, the Celtics gave Kobe those shots and lived with the results and I fully expect them to follow the same strategy this year. Although James Posey is gone and Kobe has grown as a player since 2008, the 2010 Celtics were able to disrupt LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in these playoffs with their current personnel, so it's not out of the question that they could do the same to Kobe.

In 2008, Paul Pierce and the Celtics feasted on the Lakers' small forward corps. Luke Walton and Vlad Radmanovich had no answer for Pierce defensively and barely made him work on both ends of the floor, and the mismatch was a major reason that the Celtics won the series. Unfortunately for the Celtics, the Lakers now feature Ron Artest at small forward who still remains an elite defender and has a long history with Paul Pierce. Though Artest has lost a step since his peak, he is still more than capable of shutting down more physical wing players thanks to his incredible strength and tenacity. Paul Pierce doesn't have the quickness to exploit Artest and has no hope of winning the physical battle, so despite his success in the Conference Finals against the Orlando Magic I am worried about Pierce's production in these Finals. Also, it is impossible to underrate the effect of having Artest on Pierce instead of Kobe Bryant, who should have much more energy for offense and will be free to defend Rajon Rondo. I'll live with whatever offense Artest can give the Lakers in this series, but I am terrified of the potential effect he could have on the defensive end.

Up front, the Lakers feature one of the biggest and longest tandems in all of basketball with Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Bynum provides all of the rebounding and interior toughness that the Lakers were lacking in 2008 (he missed the Finals with a knee injury) and was a big key to the Lakers' championship run last year. Fortunately for the Celtics, Bynum is once again battling a knee injury, and although he has played and will participate in the FInals, he has been inconsistent and isn't moving at full speed. The Celtics should go right at Bynum and involve him in the pick & roll, which will force him to move on defense and takes him out of his most effective role as a help defender and draw him away from the hoop. The Lakers have always been terrible at defending the pick & roll, and with Bynum hobbled, I expect to see a healthy dose of it in this series.

Pau Gasol is another matter completely. Gasol may be the most skilled big man in the NBA along with Dirk Nowitzki, and his passing, post game and soft touch with either hand are sure to give the Celtics some problems this year. While the lanky Spaniard was soft in 2008 and got ruthlessly picked on by Kevin Garnett in the Finals, he has used that bad memory as motivation and has worked on his toughness, defense and rebounding in the two years since then. Having Bynum to protect him has helped a lot, but Gasol is a different player than he was in 2008, especially when it comes to playing against the Celtics. Gasol's length won't bother the Celtics too much, however he is a dangerous player who may very well be the key to the series.

The Laker bench is not incredibly strong, yet it is also not weak and does have the potential to give the Celtics problems. Lamar Odom is a versatile forward who has unparalleled quickness and a reliable handle, though he lacks a jumper and sometimes disappears in big games. He has played better since getting punked by the Celtics in 2008, and like Gasol has used the lingering embarrassment as motivation to stick it to Boston every time they play. A healthy Garnett should be able to contain Odom to some degree, but his presence will be a major one in this year's Finals.

Flanking Odom on the bench is a shit sandwich composed of Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga. At times, Brown and Farmar have been effective, but overall the Laker bench is weak aside from Odom. While the Celtics' bench isn't exactly the deepest in the NBA, they should be able to handle the Laker reserves. Glen Davis, Nate Robinson, Tony Allen and Rasheed Wallace will all have favorable match-ups at times and will need to play big in order for the Celtics to win the championship this year.

Overall, this match-up is very even across the board. The Celtics have a distinct advantage at point guard and are even just about everywhere else, so I expect this series to be very close and hard fought throughout. In my mind, Kobe is likely to get his no matter what the Celtics try and do to stop him, and in most cases paying too much attention to Kobe just allows the other Lakers (many of whom are more than capable of creating their own offense) to get better shots. I would like to see the Celtics focus on shutting down Odom and Gasol and limiting Fisher in certain situations. As magnificent as Kobe Bryant is, he won't be able to bat the Celtics by himself (I wish he would try), so limiting the other Lakers and taking them out of their comfort zone will be key this series. Hopefully, Kobe will see single coverage and get the tunnel vision that has been a defining characteristic of his career and the Laker offense will sink into the muck against a tough, committed Celtic defense that is unlike anything Los Angeles has had to experience thus far.

Much like 2008, the Lakers have looked awfully impressive up to this point, but haven't had to play another elite defensive team in these playoffs. Without a healthy Bynum, this team slightly resembles the squad from 2008 that relied on simply outscoring its opponents to gain victory. The Lakers have learned since then and will play better defense this series, so I am more worried now than I was two years ago. I think Ron Artest could be a huge difference maker for the Lakers, but at the same time these Celtics are so balanced that they have been able to punish the best of the NBA even without stellar contributions from Paul Pierce. I'll have plenty more material tomorrow and on Thursday, just make sure you tune in and watch the games!

Knee-Jerk

I'll probably feel differently about this game tomorrow, but as it stands I can't help but feel like the Celtics got hosed just a little bit tonight against the Lakers.  I'm probably just frustrated about the way the Celtics played the game (terribly), but seriously, I have no idea how or why Kevin Garnett fouls out down the stretch in a game that was that physical.  Oh yeah, and the "foul" was an obvious flop by Derek Fisher (or was it just "selling the call?") and Gasol practically hacked bone to get the ball loose in the first place, but you know, no big deal.

This is what I don't get about the NBA: the game is physical and whistles are getting swallowed left and right because the players are playing the game.  And then, out of nowhere, Garnett gets called for a touch foul when he's fighting for a loose ball in a tight game?  It puzzles me, truly.  Incidental contact had been ignored for the entire game, Garnett played within that standard, and yet even after getting fouled to create the loose ball, he's called for his sixth foul in competition for the loose ball just because Fisher acts like he's been mugged and spills all over the ground (conversely, Lamar Odom had five fouls for most of the fourth quarter and got away with far more than KG did).  The vacillation of the refs tonight was just flat out mind boggling.

All I want is some freaking consistency from the officials.  Oh sure, it's hard to make judgements so quickly and observe and judge such a fluid game and all, but pretty please, just suck slightly less at your job once in a while.  I know that the Super Bowl just happened and you NBA referees are all antsy-in-your-pantsy to one-up the NFL Zebras, but that's no excuse to ruin a perfectly good game between two very equal opponents.

Whatever, to be honest, the Celtics didn't deserve that game anyhow.  They were careless with the ball on offense (16 turnovers) and essentially gift wrapped the Lakers twenty-freaking-four points as a result.  And even though the Lakers threw up enough bricks from the free-throw line to build house (17-29!!!!!!!!!!!), the Celtics still couldn't get it done without Garnett down the stretch.  As soon as he was gone from the game, the Celtics lost all of their spacing, ball movement and much of their defensive tenacity.  Had KG been available for overtime, I feel strongly that the game would have had a different result.  But KG wasn't in there, and the Celtics played poorly throughout, so give the Lakers some credit for playing a good game (I just threw up in my mouth a little bit, ugh).

This loss is especially disappointing because it wasted some great efforts and it felt like the Celtics missed a lot of open shots that could have just as easily gone in as rimmed out.  In particular, Leon Powe and Eddie House came up huge for Boston and made the most of their floor time (I was actually wondering why we didn't see more of those two down the stretch), combining for 26 points on 11-17 shooting and 11 rebounds to boot.  Their energy was key for the Celtics, and both made big buckets when their number was called (House went 4-5 from downtown).  

Paul Pierce deserves a great deal of credit for his defense on Kobe, forcing Mamba into many a contested jumpshot in crunch time, often working one-on-one. Unfortunately, Pierce also deserves his fair share of the blame for the loss, as he missed several late free-throws that would have given the Celtics a late lead and would have put more pressure on the Lakers.  He also went 5-13 from the floor and turned the ball over five times.  Sad trombone...

The implications of this game?  LA is very deep and appear to still be sore from their humiliating exit from last year's Finals.  They're much worse without Bynum controlling the middle of the floor, but unfortunately, the Celtics still seem behind without James Posey and PJ Brown.  The Celtics need help, desperately.  I'd like to see them add another long body to come off the bench and make life harder for the likes of Pau Gasol, who had a field day against the much shorter Glen Davis tonight, as well as somebody to handle the ball for the second unit and let Eddie House roam free on offense.  I hate to say Stephon Marbury at this point, but there isn't a lot of promising talent out there at this point.  Signing Marbury to a small contract and keeping him on a short leash would be a low risk option that given Marbury's talent could be very rewarding for the Celtics.  I feel dirty just writing that, but Boston needs to get better if they want a shot at defending their title against the Lakers in June.

Injury Implications

Sorry for my extended absence over the weekend, but I had to go make some money to pay the bills (believe it or not sharing your infinite basketball wisdom with the masses isn't quite as lucrative as you might think).  Fortunately, the Celtics kept right on rolling through the weekend after yet another convincing victory over Detroit (the Iverson for Billups swap is quickly gaining ground on Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb as one of the worst trades of all time) and wins against Minnesota on Sunday and Philadelphia last night.  

Boston's' winning streak is now at 12 (in case any of you were counting), though it will be put to the test against the Lakers this Thursday in Boston.  While the circumstances for this Thursday's contest against LA are quite similar to the two teams last meeting on Christmas (nationally televised, Celtics riding double digit win streak, another brutal road trip looming), this match-up will have a dramatically different feel because of the personnel involved.  

Kevin Garnett has sat out the last two Celtic games with the flu, and while it isn't a certainty that he'll play on Thursday, I imagine he'll do whatever he can to be back in the line-up against the Lakers.  Even if KG suits up, I'm not sure how effective he'll be with the flu affecting his energy and intensity on the court (though it apparently wasn't a problem for Ray Allen last night, who is suffering through the same sickness).  Garnett is key for the Celtics, who need his length, quickness and physicality to match up with Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom.  If KG isn't there or isn't able to contain those guys, the Celtics defense will have to double team, leaving them constantly out of position and susceptible to ball movement and dribble penetration.  On the other side of the ball, Garnett is a tough cover for the Lakers, who can't match his length and quickness with just one defender, forcing them to commit more focus on KG and leave the other Celtics free to operate in single coverage.

The Lakers, on the other hand, have much bigger injury issues (literally and figuratively) after Andrew Bynum tore his MCL on Saturday against Memphis.  The initial prognosis was 8-12 weeks of missed action for Bynum, which should keep him out for the remainder of the regular season and possibly into the playoffs (12 weeks would be almost through the Lakers first round playoff series at the end of April).  Additionally, 8-12 weeks is an exceedingly optimistic time frame for such a big player to be able to recover fully from such a serious injury, not to mention the amount of time it will take Bynum to work himself back into playing shape.  And when you consider his injury last year and the way his return kept getting delayed, I seriously doubt that we'll be seeing Andrew Bynum again this year. 

This loss is unfortunate and must be very disheartening for Bynum and the Lakers, and not just because Kobe was the one who hit Bynum's knee after apparently trying to sell a call on a drive to the hoop and flopping on the ground.  No, this injury is unfortunate because Bynum was playing his best basketball of the season (much like last year when he hurt his other knee) was finally on the floor to provide the length, defense and toughness that LA was so sorely lacking in last year's Finals against Boston.  Although Bynum's injury is beneficial to the Celtics as well as every other team in the West, even somebody as morally corrupt and twisted as myself wouldn't wish this on anyone (except maybe A-Rod, a Manning or possibly Kobe).  

Though the task was daunting, I was actually interested to see how the Celtics would try and react to this incarnation of the Lakers, who not only had enough offensive weapons in their arsenal to blow the doors off just about anyone, but could lock you down on defense as well with Bynum patrolling the paint.  After watching the game on Christmas and seeing some of the other signs throughout the year that exposed Boston as behind where they were last year and showed the Lakers as noticeably better, I wasn't sure that the Celtics could handle LA in a seven game series.  But now that the Lakers are essentially back to the rotation (although they have a healthy Trevor Ariza for now) that went belly up last June against the defense of the Celtics, I'm back to only being scared shitless of LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are now 23-0 at home this year (yikes!).

To make matters worse, there isn't another Pau Gasol out there for Mitch Kupchack to hijack this year, so the Lakers will have to make do with what they have (not that this will be a problem for them).  Although the Lakers still have plenty of depth on their roster, they are starting to look a little bit thin up front, especially without Ronny Turiaf to bring energy and size off the bench.  For most of the year, LA was playing either Gasol or Bynum at all times to give them a constant post presence with both units, however without Bynum some minutes will have to go to the likes of Chris Mihm or DJ Mbenga, who have played 75 minutes combined this year and have contributed only 27 points (all of them scored by Mihm).  And when you consider the PTSD flashbacks Mihm must have every time he has to play against the Celtics, the outlook for LA is especially grim.  

But hey, if you look on the bright side for LA, they should be well acclimated to playing without Bynum already and now there are just that many more shots for Kobe to take.  And Kobe does seem to want to atone for his unfortunate part in Bynum's injury, judging by his 61-point outburst against the Knicks (and Mike D'Antoni's New York Knicks aren't just anyone, you know...).  Mamba seems determined to carry the Lakers during this difficult period with his scoring or go out shooting.  As a matter of fact, this is just what the Lakers needed: for Kobe to go back into the mode where he shoots 30+ times per game and carry the totality of the load himself.  It's not like his sacrifice and focus on playing team basketball was what enabled the Lakers to become such a deadly team in the first place, right?  

I mean, so what if there's no shot-blocking, intimidation, rebounding or interior toughness on the Lakers anymore?  It's not like that was what was missing during the Finals last year.  As somebody who owns the Collector's Edition DVD set, I can honestly say that the Lakers didn't suffer from Bynum's absence (trying to keep typing with a straight face).  I hope that everyone in LA recorded the Christmas game on TiVo, because I imagine that's the last time you'll se the Lakers physically dominate the Celtics this year (sad trombone).  

Next time: Jameer Nelson's shoulder!