Coming from all of this are grumblings that the Celtics need to scuttle the whole ship and break up the big three because we clearly aren't winning a championship this year as is. While I'd agree that the Celtics probably aren't going to win it all this year and probably won't even win the East, but I don't think that making a knee jerk trade in January is going to solve anything. There's a variety of reasons not to do a deal, most of all because there isn't anyone available in the NBA that the Celtics can get that makes them so much better that they have to do a deal. So why doesn't everyone just take a deep breath or two, take one or two steps back and let's look at this whole situation before we do anything rash.
So before we can start looking at solutions, we need to diagnose the problems that are causing the Celtics to lose games right now. Though I haven't watched every minute of every game, from what I have seen the Celtics' have two problems that are somewhat related. The big problem with the Celtics this year is that they aren't rebounding the ball. The whole Celtic defense is built on contesting shots heavily (which they still do as well as anyone in the NBA) and limiting opponents to one contested shot per possession. Opponents are pursuing the ball against the Celtics (and the Celtics appear to NOT be pursuing the ball) and getting more second shots than in years past, which creates more and BETTER looks for the opposition.
Why are the Celtics giving up so many more offensive rebounds? Well an unhealthy KG certainly doesn't help, but really the problem lies in the fact that the Celtic bigs have to help more this year on dribble penetration and are therefore unable to box out their men (which leaves the likes of Pierce to box out power forwards and centers) and out of position to grab defensive rebounds. While a decent share of the blame for this belongs to Ray Allen (his defense has been noticeably worse this year on the whole), every other Celtic has a hand in this too. Also, it doesn't help that 'Sheed is so freaking out of shape that he makes Glen Davis seem slim, yuck. Simply put, everyone needs to try a little harder to limit second shots for the opposition and Boston will be just fine come playoff time.
While the rebounding problem is mostly defensive, it does affect the Celtics' offense as well. First of all, transition opportunities are fewer and farther between when you're having to send everyone to the glass to secure a rebound, and it is also difficult to run when you're busy taking the ball out of your own net. But really, the rebounding deficiency at this point is harming the Celtics most because it makes the Celtics' one achilles heel more glaring and hurtful to the team. And yes, I'm talking about turnovers here. The Celtics turn the ball over as much as anyone in the NBA, which has been a dirty little secret of this team for the past 3 years. The Celtics run a complex offense and take chances that many other teams wouldn't, so some turnovers are to be expected. These mistakes are easier to cover up when the other team doesn't score, however when they do the turnovers tend to stick out like a herpes sore on a Tryon Creek bar skank (we all know who I'm talking about, so I won't name names). Needless to say, the turnover problem is bad, and the only solution is to cover it up with better rebounding.
Aside from the turnovers, the Celtics offensive problems are few and far between. From the games I've watched, Boston has no trouble at all generating good shots for every member of the ball club. The core of Pierce, Garnett and Allen are aging and declining in production, however Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins have both grown offensively and can/do pick up the slack quite well. At this point, shots just aren't falling the way they were in October/November. This is not a reason to blow things up. Basketball is not about putting the ball in the net as much as you think. What really matters in the long run is repeatedly generating good looks for your team. If you think about basketball in a certain way, the end result of make or miss is irrelevant, the quality of the look and the decision making process of how the offense works is the crucial piece.
For example, when Kobe Bryant stuck the game winning shot on Sunday afternoon, everyone drools over Kobe without realizing that a) Ray Allen played perfect defense and made Kobe take a low percentage shot and that more importantly b) Pau Gasol was WIDE OPEN for the entire play. Kobe sank the shot and got the Lakers the game and made Sportscenter in the process, but in a lot of ways (except for the only one that counts, unfortunately) the Celtics won that possession by forcing the worst possible shot when it mattered most. So even though shots aren't falling and the offense appears to be stagnant, the Celtics really just need to keep shooting and keep playing to get each other open looks at the basket.
Another example is Rasheed Wallace, who has taken much heat this year for turning into Antoine Walker and being satisfied to sit on the outside and clang threes all night long. While I do agree that 'Sheed does rely on the 3 too much, again he just isn't hitting them now like he was earlier in the year. I haven't seen him force to many bombs lately, most of those that look forced occur because the ball is swung to him late in the shot clock and someone HAS to shoot. What I will say is that 'Sheed should post up more because he is still brutally effective inside, and his unwillingness to do so reflects on his lack of commitment to contact and to conditioning. My gripes with Wallace lie more there than in his shot selection, though the two are related.
If you did want to criticize Boston's shot selection, I would look at the fact that they are a team of jump shooters and sometimes have trouble getting to the free-throw line. And once they do get to the line, it is always an adventure for these Celtics. The fact that our point guard shoots only 59% from the free-throw line and is one of the only Celtics who still goes into the paint is disconcerting. The reality is that Rajon Rondo could get to the charity stripe any time he wants. But the fact that he can't convert when he gets there has already cost the Celtics one game this year and changes the entire way teams defend Boston. While the little guy has done more than anyone could have hoped for already, if he really is going to be THE MAN (and the Celtics need him to do so, by the way), he has to force opponents to respect him at the free-throw line and needs to at least make sure that he isn't a liability out there for the Celtics.
Then there is the Celtics' bench, which as in years past is a problem area for this team. A general lack of depth at the wing and at point guard have hurt the Celtics this year, but also injuries across the board have affected the bench more than a lot of people realize. Now, I'm not trying to make any excuses about injuries or whatever, because everyone gets injured and it is part of life in the NBA. Besides, if I legitimately started complaining about injuries when I watch the Blazers (this year's most injured team, hands down. No really, they're starting to resemble the Blazers from Breaks of the Game) I would either get struck dead by lightning or burned alive by a lynch mob, so I won't go down that road too far. Still, injuries to KG have forced Rasheed Wallace (who provides the lion's share of Boston's bench production) into the starting rotation and a bum thumb (yes I did that just to rhyme) has kept Marquis Daniels (who plays a bigger role than the numbers indicate) from helping run the offense for the second unit. Throw in the hand injury to Glen "Don't Call Me Big Baby" Davis and you can see why the Celtics' bench has stuggled this year. Daniels should be back in a few weeks and if KG is ever healthy again, 'Sheed will return to the second unit as well, which could go a long way towards solving a lot of problems for Boston.
So knowing this, would a trade actually help the Celtics all that much? Would anything get fixed if you blew up the core of this team and tried to make adjustments half way through the year? Trade away Ray Allen and suddenly opponents don't have to worry about anyone cutting all over the floor and covering the three-point arc as tightly, which will kill space on the interior and close up all driving lanes and many of the options within the Celtics' offense. And even if you did want to trade Ray Allen, who are the Celtics getting in return? I can't think of any team who has a piece that the Celtics could use who would be interested in Ray Allen. At this point he is cap relief for the future, and any deal for a semi-tantalizing piece or better would likely require the Celtics to send draft picks too, which is a good chunk of the reason that the Celtics are in the quagmire that they're in. Throw in the fact that Ray Allen is perhaps the most likable NBA player in the game today and by all accounts is an outstanding human being. On a team that is already dangerously close to turning me off (a hardcore fan with a thick skin for bad behavior), you need guys like him.
The only roster moves that I would go for would be of the smaller variety. Getting a quality backup point guard or another versatile wing player would be just great, and some of the names out there are interesting. Names get thrown into trade discussions all the time, but I think that getting Kirk Hinrich from the Bulls is a very interesting and real possibility. He's a solid defender with enough size to defend either backcourt position, shoots the ball well and can run the offense with no problems. He already comes off the bench behind Derrick Rose is Chicago, so we know that a) he doesn't have a huge ego and b) Chicago doesn't need him that badly. He'd be a nice addition to the Celtics and could probably be had for the right pu-pu platter of expiring deals (think Scal, TA, J.R. Giddens and Glen Davis or Eddie House or something like that). That's a move that makes sense, the Celtics would get better without having to make drastic changes.
On a semi-related note, I actually met Kirk Hinrich once in Logan Airport and he seemed like a nice, approachable guy. This was several years ago, I congratulated him on whipping Miami in the Playoffs that year and asked for an autograph on my boarding pas, which he did happily. He made my day for sure, and maybe just maybe I did the same for him, as far as I know nobody else knew who he was (it was obvious to me, and not just because I am an NBA nut. Firstly, he was a head taller than most everyone else going through security and second, he had a ridiculously expensive watch and carry-on bag. And it was a flight to Chicago). I thought about asking him who the toughest cover in the NBA was, but decided to leave him alone. Good times.
From where I stand and how I see these Celtics of the past three years, a funk in January is nothing to panic about. In many ways, the Celtics are reaping what they've sown by trading their young core for a title in 2008. We knew that was the deal and frankly should be thankful that we won at all. So many things can stop a championship run, and then the window probably still would have closed just as fast. We got what we wanted and it was worth it. The fact that this team has stayed extremely competitive and been in the hunt for two seasons after winning the title is just gravy. If this group can get back to playing Celtic basketball (and they can), then everything will be just fine and this team will make a deep, deep playoff run. If they can't, so it goes. There just isn't anyone available out there that's worth blowing up a team this good for at the moment, so why not ride it out with this group? For those of you out there who think this ship is taking on water and will sink sooner than later, life rafts are available and you have my blessing to abandon ship. I'll be standing on deck, prepared to go down with this team if need be.
No comments:
Post a Comment