Friday, March 6, 2009

Not to be a Debbie Downer...

While the media would have you (and me) believe that tonight's nationally televised contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics is a HUGE deal that has far reaching playoff implications, as of today I am choosing a more sober and less hyped perspective on the whole ordeal.  Don't get me wrong, I am still watching, and this game will have more energy than your average Tuesday night tip-off between the Grizzlies and the Thunder, however it ultimately counts no more or less than any of the other 82 games that the Celtics will have played this year.  To clarify, I am excited for this contest, but not because it's allegedly an Eastern Conference Finals preview or anything like that.  No, I am excited to watch this game because the Celtics and Cavaliers are arguably the Association's two best teams and therefore tonight's contest should be a display of basketball at an incredibly high level.

Now I know that the promoters over at ESPN will have you believe that this game will determine playoff seeding and can tell us who is ahead between these two titans of the hardwood, but it just isn't true.  First of all, the Celtics are still missing Kevin Garnett, which puts them at a significant disadvantage against a team that's clearly as talented as the Cavs are.  Though Boston is 4-2 without Garnett this year and have shown the ability to win games without him in the lineup, they sorely need him back to measure up to the NBA's elite teams.  Without KG in the lineup, this game simply can't be one of those "yardstick" types that allows one club or the other to measure themselves against a rival.  Besides, we already know that these teams are about as even as they can possibly be at this point, so there's really no need to measure up against each other.

As for the question of playoff seeding, it's true that this game could play a role in determining seeding between these two teams, however it won't be as big a role as many would have you believe.  Although head to head record is a tiebreaker in the NBA's playoff seeding formula, it won't matter unless both teams end the season with identical overall records.  And while these teams are neck and neck right now, it is unlikely that they'll finish with the same record, rendering the head to head record a moot point (for the record, these teams have split the two games they've played this year).  Ready for the icing on the cake?  These teams play twice more during the regular season, meaning that there's a very good possibility of the season series ending in a 2-2 tie and that regardless of tonight's outcome, these teams will play again to determine their head to head record.  

But what about the possibility of gaining a psychological advantage after a game against one of your biggest rivals?  Honestly, I can't completely discount this aspect of the match-up simply because I don't know exactly how both teams think (one day I will, but not yet), but to me this game doesn't seem to have the potential to carry that much weight for either squad.  If the Celtics lose tonight on their home court to LeBron and the Cavs, it will hurt no doubt, but they can rest easy knowing that they had to compete against the best player on the planet without arguably their best player.  For the Cavs, a victory would be a nice boost, but they'd have to be thinking the same thing.  If it goes the other way (I'm fairly skeptical, by the way), the Celtics can't be too excited because they are the defending champs and should win these type of games while the Cavs can't get too down because, well, the Celtics are the defending champs.

Still, it should be a great game.  At this point, I feel like there's actually more of a burden on the Cavaliers to perform at this point because Boston is missing the Big Ticket.  Despite being on the road against a bitter rival, the Cavs should win this game.  Yes, Boston is still very good even without KG, however the Cavs have LeBron freaking James and should come out on top.  In some ways, I'd almost rather the Cavs win just for the outside chance that they'll sleep on the Celtics down the road.  I'm already getting excited for the tip-off which is just under five hours away (get psyched!!!!!!).  Knowing me, there probably won't be any analysis tonight after the game, but I'll do my best to have something ready on Saturday.

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