Aligning the Stars

Admittedly I'm somewhat distracted right now by the breaking news that Manny Ramirez has tested positive for a banned substance and will be suspended for 50 games starting today.  He tested positive for a female fertility drug, which is apparently used as a mechanism to restart the body's natural testosterone production after the user has finished a steroid cycle.  So much for my vote that he's the greatest right-handed hitter to ever play the game (welcome back, Mr. Aaron!).  Even in the steroid era where nobody can be presumed innocent after so many revelations in recent years, this shocked me.  Manny had no need for steroids, for his gifts of brilliant vision, balance, discipline, reflexes and the sweetest swing I've ever seen made him the great hitter he is, yet the implications from this result is practically a smoking gun.  We should have known better by now, but somehow this is still a devastating shock to the system.  So it goes.  

As for basketball news, the Celtics are looking good once again after pounding the Magic into submission last night to even the series and hearing the news today that Magic point guard Rafer "Skip 2 my Lou" Alston has been suspended for game three after slapping Eddie House upside the head during the second half of game two.  Though Alston hasn't had any luck stopping the Celtic guards or providing effective offense against them, his loss means that the already suspect Orlando point-guard corps is now thinner than Mikki Moore.  This loss would be significant against any NBA opponent, however against the Celtics it is huge because of the out-of-this-world play from Rajon Rondo.

Speaking of Rondo, he continued his downright nasty (and I mean that in the best possible way) play last night, notching another triple double with 15 points, 11 rebounds and 18 (!) assists.  The numbers are impressive (especially the assist total) enough, but they don't even capture the extent to which he shredded the Magic from start to finish.  As usual, Rondo was the catalyst and used his speed and energy to wreak havoc on a normally stout Orlando defense and created more scoring opportunities for the Celtics than his 18 assists indicate.  Simmons is right, he's a smaller, faster and nastier version of Isiah Thomas, and I'm totally loving every second of it.

Game three is tomorrow night in Orlando, and while I'd normally pick the home team to win an intense home game after getting humiliated at your opponents house in the last contest, but for a variety of reasons that I will in due time explain, I like the Celtics to win the next game.  The first reason is the absence of Alston and the stellar play of Rajon Rondo.  Anthony Johnson and Tyronn Lue have little hope of containing Rondo on defense, and neither have proven to be players capable of taking big minutes in big games.  Rondo will slash the Orlando guards to ribbons, and even with Dwight Howard defending the rim Rondo's dribble penetration will help the other Celtics find open shots.  The Magic have no answer for Rondo, and that's the end of the story.

Another factor working for the Celtics going into game three is the poor play of Paul Pierce in game two.  Pierce played only 16 minutes in game two because of foul trouble and finished with just three points for the game.  Because of the foul trouble, Pierce actually got an impromptu rest and should be fresh for the next contest.  Pierce is also the kind of player who is competitive and proud, meaning he isn't likely to have two bad games in a row.  With that in mind, I'm looking for him to exploit his advantages against the Magic and spark the Celtics on the road, much as they did against Chicago in game three of that series.  If he can stay out of foul trouble, Pierce should have plenty of opportunities to remind the Magic why he's called the Truth.

In this same vein, I expect Dwight Howard to play better than he did in game two (he got outplayed by Kendrick Perkins and finished with a pedestrian 12/12), but to me that won't necessarily translate into a win for the Magic.  As I've written about at length before, I believe that Dwight Howard's game is limited and that he can be defended more readily than anyone is willing to admit.  The Celtics have played him well all year long, and Glen Davis has personally gotten the better of him before.  He's incredibly talented to be sure, however his strengths don't really match up that well against a tough and disciplined defense like the Celtics.  

Dwight Howard can simply be pushed away from the rim and double teamed all day long, which if done properly can completely remove him from the game and really stagnate the normally fluid, high octane Orlando offense.  Howard struggles to be an offensive threat when he's more than five feet from the basket, and his poor footwork and passing skills can make him a liability on a night where he isn't allowed to live in the paint.  Because of this, the Celtics have an advantage over Orlando and should win this series, albeit in six or seven games (though who wants to?  As I'm writing this, LeBron and the Cavs are KILLING the Hawks again and James just hit a 40-footer to end the first half with a hand in his face and it wasn't luck.  He measured the shot, rose up for a normal jumper and followed through as the ball went through the net, simply sick.)

Better Days

I just checked and it turns out that I'm contractually obligated as a journalist to spend at least 500 words writing an "oh shit" column about Kevin Garnett's right knee and the Celtics' ugly (and I do mean ugly) loss to the Jazz last night in Utah.  My heart was in my throat last night and my mind was racing after Garnett came up lame in the second quarter and struggled to put any weight on his right knee, however after some sleep, hookah, beer and an afternoon sitting in the sun I'm not feeling nearly so heartbroken today as I did last night.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not sunny on the injury, but I'm not exactly going to declare the Celtics' season over because of it.

In case any of you didn't know, KG has flown back to Boston for an MRI, and at this point it seems as though the Celtics are wisely erring on the side of caution with their superstar forward.  Boston will miss him during the remaining games of the road trip, but this option is better than letting a warrior like Garnett (who'd play on a bleeding stump of his leg if you let him) tough it out and risk making a minor injury worse.  This injury seems somewhat similar to Garnett's abdominal strain from last year, with one significant wrinkle that could cause problems down the road for the Celtics (more on that a bit later).

First of all, the Celtics have shown that they can win without Garnett in the lineup.  They proved this last year around this time, and I expect them to be able to do so again this year.  In fact, losing Garnett for a week or two could end up being beneficial for the Celtics in the long run.  Without the Big Ticket in the lineup, both Glen Davis and leon Powe are going to get more touches and more minutes in the rotation, providing the team an opportunity to get more out of two role players who will need to play big in the playoffs.  Giving Davis and Powe more time with the starters now is just a warm up for May and (hopefully) June.  This is an opportunity for both players to grow and develop, hopefully they can take advantage of it.

The important thing to remember is that no one player has to shoulder the load that KG normally carries, and that even without their emotional leader the Celtics have a good core of veteran players that have proven to be tough enough to carry a team by themselves.  If Kendrick Perkins can step up a bit with the other front court reserves, the Celtics should still be able to win games, even against some of the Association's tougher defenses.  The early prognosis is that Garnett may be ready to play against the Pacers at home once the road trip is over, so with a little bit of luck the Celtics should be back to business as usual in a week.

But let's not count our chickens before they hatch, people.  When Garnett missed time last year, the Celtics were way ahead in the standings and had a very small chance of losing the best record in the league and home court advantage throughout the playoffs (which, as it turns out, was HUGE with a capital HUGE).  That was then, this is now.  Today, the Celtics trail the Lakers for the best overall record and aren't even first in the East (the Cavs are two one-thousandths of a point ahead of Boston right now), trailing Cleveland by a small margin.  The Celtics were having their fair share of issues just keeping pace with the NBA's best before Garnett's injury, and now they have to make up ground without their best player (definitely a different discussion for a different time, but I stand by this).  

The implications of this race for the best record both in the Conference and in the NBA are twofold.  First, having home court advantage is a big boost, especially for an emotional team that relies heavily on falling jump shots to get wins (I'm no stat geek, but I believe that a home crowd can focus players and help make shots fall).  Cleveland took the Celtics to the last possession of the seventh game last year, and given their off-season improvements, the Celtics will need every edge they can get against LeBron James and the Cavaliers.  Although the Celtics were able to win road games in Detroit and Los Angeles last year on their championship run (including the huge comeback against LA in game 4 of the Finals), having game sevens in Boston will be vital for the Celtics' success this year in the playoffs.

Secondly, and most importantly, having the best record matters because favorable playoff match-ups on the road to the NBA FInals.  If the Celtics can't pass Cleveland for the best record in the East, then Boston is looking at #3 Orlando in the second round of the playoffs, while Cleveland would get the winner of the Hawks/Heat series.  Although I firmly believe that Dwight Howard is extremely overrated and that the Celtics can beat Orlando in a seven game series, they aren't a team that I want to play in the second round.  With Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and now Rafer Alston on the perimeter, the Magic are a dangerous team that's as talented as any in the NBA.  Not having to play them while simultaneously forcing Cleveland to take them on would be huge for Boston's hopes of repeating as champions.  

In other news, Joe Smith wants to play for the Celtics, which would be just what the doctor ordered for the Celtics' bench, the Blazers failed to make a move for Gerald Wallace (which has me so steamed that I may start a Blazers blog too just to write 3,000 words about why the Blazers should have pulled the trigger), Tyson Chandler is a Hornet again, and Amar'e Stoudemire's eyes are falling out.  Also, Ray Utech is unreliable and despite his firm assertion to the contrary, should always choose will-call for his Blazer tickets from now on.  The last two thirds of that Blazers/Grizzlies game was awesome, though.