Spring Thawing

Consider this your courtesy wake up call: the home stretch of the NBA season has arrived!  With only three weeks to go before the beginning of the real NBA season, teams in the hunt for a playoff spot are either picking up the intensity level (see: Orlando, 9-2 in March.  More on them later) or wilting under the pressure (see Portland: losing at home to the 76ers and making me look like an ass),  all of which makes for exciting basketball and good reading.  Add to that a smothering portion of MVP debate and the serious beginnings of draft chatter and it makes life interesting and meaningful as a basketball fan.  

If you were a smart fan who isn't totally addicted to watching any and every NBA game that's on TV, you've slept through most of the season (much like I slept through most of my morning classes in college...) and are now just in time for all of the excitement and the games that actually matter*.  In the hours you'd normally spend facebooking, gambling or reading about grossly fattening food on your computer at work, you could catch up on all of the major story lines of the NBA season from D-Wade's rebirth to Tyson Chandler's foot-gate (patent pending).  If you do some digging and stick with me, you'll know everything about this season whether you want to or not.  Soon enough, you'll be passing for a loyal die hard fan and accusing some of your peers and coworkers of being bandwagon hugging phonies (you sly fox, you) and hitting your peak of interest right as the playoffs begin.  If this describes you, then may I suggest first that you watch tomorrow night's contest between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics, and second that you keep reading (you have to in order to find the funny joke attached to that asterisk from earlier).

No matter what kind of basketball fan you are, tomorrow night's game will be for you.  It's the final meeting between the Celtics, who come in ranked second in the East, and the third ranked Magic who trail Boston by only one game.  This game is also Orlando's last chance to even the season series between the two teams (they are currently down 2-1) and neutralize a potential playoff tiebreaker that could determine home court advantage between these two teams.  Oh yeah, and Orlando beat the Celtics 86-79 in Boston the last time these clubs met, which means this is a shot at revenge for the Celtics, who are finally getting healthier after a horrible month that saw at times seven different rotation players out of the lineup with injuries.  And I haven't even mentioned all of the talented players involved...  yet.

I imagine I'll have a fair bit to talk about after the game tomorrow, so for now I want to focus on one issue that will likely come into play during tomorrow's game.  For once, it doesn't have anything to do with Stephon Marbury (though I suppose he could be involved in a way) or any of the other Celtics for that matter, but instead with their largest opponent in tomorrow's game.  And no, I don't mean Marcin Gortat.  I am talking about Dwight Howard, Olympic Gold Medalist and Orlando's All-Star Center.  

If you've followed the NBA this year (those of you who are just catching up, take note), you know that Dwight Howard is having a beastly year in the territory of the all time greats with his 21 points/14 rebounds/3 blocks per game average this year and has received some nominations for Defensive Player of the Year from members of the national media.  Howard leads the NBA in blocks and seems to be able to get a hand on almost anything that's less than 18 feet from the floor, consistently providing jaw dropping highlights and dare I say super human feats of athleticism.  Hardly a game goes by where Dwight does not spring up from an entangled forest of bodies into a level of the stratosphere that even stealth bombers can't reach to swat a shot into the fifth row to a chorus of oohs and aahs and a dizzying array of flashbulbs.  The crowd roars, Howard roars and the player whose shot is now a temporary souvenir is humbled.  Somewhere, Kevin Harlan shouts so loud that Charles Barkley gets startled and drops his bear claw.  Howard truly is something to behold, and it shocks me to think about how dominant he could possibly be with another five years of experience and training, but Defensive Player of the Year?  I think not.

First of all, defense is more than blocking shots and grabbing rebounds (though doing those things well surely helps), and in that regard I can think of several other players in the NBA right now who are far more deserving of the award.  This however, is a whole new can of worms that I have just cracked open but will now discard and open later.  The truth is, I don't even need to go into that to sink Howard's chances at DPOY.  Instead, I'm going to dissect and dismantle his shot-blocking, which is the main reason he's considered for the award (only four paragraphs to get to the damn point today, someone give me a medal!).  

You see, not all shot blocks are created equal, and the lion's share of Dwight Howard's blocks are inherently less useful than others.  Before you accuse me of being some kind of Calvinist, give me a chance to explain myself.  Remember the superhuman display of athleticism I described involving Dwight Howard?  What's the result of that play?  The Magic are still on defense and their opponent gets to inbound the basketball from the sideline and run a set play.  The other team gets another chance to score, and they get to do it comfortably using sets they've practiced all year long.  Even if Howard blocks the shot with only a little time left on the clock, the other team still gets to try and run an inbounds play to get an open look immediately, which will give them a reasonably good shot more often than Orlando would like.  Is that supposed to be great defense?  It looks good, sure, but the net gain for his team off of such a play is minimal.

Now consider what happens if instead of swatting the shot off the court as hard as he could, Dwight Howard simply went up, accepted the ball with his hands and either tipped it to a teammate or to himself.  Though it isn't as sexy as spiking a basketball into oblivion and it's likely too subtle for an ESPN highlight, the result of that play is much greater than before.  By blocking shots and keeping them in play, Howard would greatly increase the chances that his team gains possession of the basketball.  This takes away a possession form your opponent while giving you an extra opportunity, which is pretty much the exact formula for playing successful basketball.  Also, blocking shots with the aim of gaining possession tends to lead to more easy basket opportunities via the fast break and more chances to catch your opponent at a defensive disadvantage after such a play.  

All of the guys who are considered elite shot blockers and defenders do this, from Josh Smith, Tim Duncan and Ben Wallace circa 2003 all the way to the G.O.A.T., Bill Russell.  For whatever reason, Dwight Howard doesn't do this, and therefore doesn't deserve to be in the conversation of elite defenders in this league.  If the goal of defense is to get the ball back without giving up points, Dwight Howard is a good but not great means to accomplish that end.  He prevents the other team from scoring once, but also tends to give them another shot at it.  Until that changes, I'm not convinced that Howard deserves it more than Kevin Garnett, Josh Smith, Shane Battier or even Dwyane Wade.  

And while I'll buy that unleashing a resounding swat into the third row has value as an intimidator and can alter the way the opposition attacks the defense, I think that any kind of block is psychologically damaging and will serve as a reminder about who controls the paint, especially if it turns into a fast break layup or dunk on the other end.  And sure, if you deflect the ball inbounds there's always a chance it goes right to an opponent who could magically be in position to score easily, but again, I'm not sold on that scenario yielding more points over the long run than allowing the other team to run an inbounds play for a shot over the long run.  This is probably a woefully incomplete discussion of the topic, but it's m two cents, anyhow.  Whatever, at least I know that Red Auerbach agrees with me.   

*Disclaimer: less than half of the remaining games actually matter.