Pot Odds

I’m going to wait until after tomorrow’s game against the Pistons to weigh in fully on Marbury, as I haven’t actually seen him play yet (the Pacers/Celtics game was out of market for me, sadly).  Until then, I have a few quick points for y’all about why this move makes sense for the Celtics and how it trumps any moral debate about Marbury’s past or abundant character flaws.

The bottom line about Stephon Marbury is this: he needs the Celtics far more than the Celtics need him.  Without Marbury, the Celtics are contenders for the best record in the East and possibly an NBA title; with him they may be over the top (hopefully we’ll find out sometime over the next 20+ games).  With the Celtics, Marbury has an opportunity to play for an NBA title and to prove to the rest of the world that he isn’t the clubhouse cancer that he’s appeared to be throughout much of his career.  If this stint with the Celtics doesn’t work out, Marbury will likely be out of the league forever.  If the allure of a championship and a shot at redemption (and another fat contract) isn’t enough to motivate Marbury, I can confidently say that there is nothing out there that will. 

The other important aspect of this move to pick up Marbury is the outstanding risk: reward ratio that comes with the move.  The Celtics are paying a guy whose career averages put him with the NBA’s all-time elite players a little over a million dollars for the rest of the season.  Nobody can deny Marbury’s talent and his potential to contribute to the Celtics in a variety of ways, and for the price they’re getting the Celtics would have been foolish not to sign the troubled point guard for their looming playoff run. 

Signing Marbury at this point is like limping a small suited ace or some suited connectors into a gigantic pot in a game of Texas Hold ‘em.  It’s only slightly risky (you could lose to a stronger hand or miss your draw), but you’ve also got a good chance of making the absolute best possible hand and winning the whole thing.  Maybe the hand (or in this case Marbury) is a bit outside the normal, conservative range of playable cards, but for the price and because of the possibility of a very high reward, Danny Ainge and the Celtics can make the play safely.  And because it was so cheap to get into the hand, Ainge can always fold (or cut Marbury) if there’s an ugly flop or turn that spells disaster for his chances in the tournament (in this case the NBA playoffs). 

And what if Ainge hits his draw?  Then the Celtics could have the inside track on a repeat championship because of this kind of calculated gamble.  While it could still be considered a long shot that Marbury will accept a diminished role, play within the system, not cause problems in the locker room and defend with purpose for the first time in his career, there’s still a chance that all this might happen.  And if Marbury does bring his best game to the table then the reward is more than high enough to offset the risks involved.

Early indications are that this move could work well.  Despite not having been on a basketball court in months, Marbury was efficient and effective in his Celtics’ debut, scoring 8 points on 4-6 shooting in only 13 minutes.  That’s actually very impressive considering he’d had only an hour or so of practice with the team before suiting up and playing in an NBA regular season game for the first time since January 11 of 2008.  This game was probably played on adrenaline, and I’m expecting some sort of regression over the next week or so before Steph really gets his legs back.  Though I wasn’t able to see the entire game, the consensus is that Marbury fit in well and made contributions during a few crucial stretches of the game.  With some more practice and time with his new teammates, I am feeling surprisingly optimistic that this could be the start of a beautiful relationship with Stephon Marbury.